Wednesday, October 16, 2013

Wednesday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Wednesday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 1697.25.  Holding below is bearish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • ES Fantasy Trader standing aside

Well the Circus rolls on as we all now await the exciting high-wire finale in just a couple of days.  I'm glad I called Tuesday as "uncertain" because there was no way to predict that Monday's optimism would evaporate on Tuesday like it was never there.  Tuesday's big dump was entirely politically driven.  Now since this is a technical blog and not a political one, I am officially declaring surrender.  Let's cut to the chase and simply say that Wednesday (and Thursday too for that matter) are completely uncertain, depending as they are entirely on the whims of Emperor "I Won't Budge" Obama and his 500-odd bickering stooges up on Capitol Clown Hill.

The technicals (daily)

The Dow: Doesn't matter.

The VIXMeaningless.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are higher at 1:10 AM EDT with ES up by 0.44%.  This simply reflects the latest round of can-kicking going on down in DC.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot ticks down from 1697.25  to 1697.00.  We are now above the pivot so technically, this is bullish.

Dollar index: No point..

Euro: Why bother.

Transportation: Whatever.

Accuracy (daily calls):

Month     right wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    5      7      6           3        0.533   -101
February   3      4      5           6        0.692    131
March      5      7      5           2        0.500    121
April      7      5      5           3        0.667    328
May        3      4      6           4        0.636     85

June       6      5      6           0        0.545    543
July      10      2      4           4        0.875    486
August    11      3      6           2        0.813    687
September  8      3      3           3        0.800    485
October    3      2      4           1        0.800    506

     And the winner is...

TBD.  Wednesday uncertain.  That's all she wrote.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats: the account remains at $110,625 after 17 trades (13 for 17  total, 7 for7 longs, 6 for 10 short) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/13.  Tonight we stand aside once again amid the continuing insanity down  in Clownington DC.

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