Sentiment: Once again it's time for the latest weekly TickerSense Blogger Sentiment Poll. We continue to track the poll to see how well it performs.
Wk.# Week % Bullish % Bearish NightOwl Poll SPX Accuracy Poll
1 12/31 40 48 - - 1402 0/1
2 1/7 47 30 + + 1466 1/2
3 1/14 52 15 + + 1472 2/3
4 1/22 50 21 + + 1486 3/4
5 1/28 44 26 + + 1503 4/5
6 2/5 40 36 + + 1513 5/6
7 2/11 43 25 + + 1518 6/7
8 2/19 21 43 - - 1520 6/8
9 2/25 30 52 - - 1516 6/9
10 3/4 29 39 - - 1518 6/10
11 3/11 41 26 + + 1551 7/11
12 3/18 41 37 + + 1561 8/12
13 3/25 31 38 + - 1557 8/13 9/13
14 4/1 38 38 + x 1569 9/14 9/13
15 4/8 32 50 - - 1553 9/15 9/14
16 4/15 33 50 + - 1589 10/16 9/15
17 4/22 19 63 - - 1555 10/17 9/16
18 4/29 33 58 - - 1582 10/18 9/17
19 5/6 50 31 + + 1614 11/19 10/18
20 5/13 37 37 + x 1634 12/20 10/18
21 5/20 50 25 + + 1667 12/21 10/19
22 5/28 37 33 + + 1650 12/22 10/20
23 6/3 29 38 - - 1631 13/23 11/21
24 6/10 38 38 + x 1643 13/24 11/21
25 6/17 32 40 + - 1627 14/25 11/22
26 6/24 13 46 - - 1592 14/26 11/23
27 7/1 25 42 - - 1606 14/27 11/24
28 7/8 42 29 + + 1632 15/28 12/25
29 7/15 48 22 + + 1680 16/29 13/26
30 7/22 42 19 + + 1692 16/30 13/27
31 7/29 39 17 + + 1692 16/31 13/28
32 8/5 46 27 + + 1710 16/32 13/29
33 8/12 32 41 - - 1691 17/33 14/30
34 8/19 23 54 - - 1656 17/34 14/31
35 8/26 23 50 - - 1664 17/35 14/32
36 9/3 21 54 - - 1633 17/36 14/33
37 9/9 35 30 + + 1655 18/37 15/34
38 9/16 40 28 + + 1688 19/38 16/35
39 9/23 52 36 + + 1710 20/39 17/36
40 9/30 39 43 + - 1692 21/40 17/37
41 10/7 30 33 + - 1691 22/41 17/38
42 10/14 48 22 + + 1703 23/42 18/39
43 10/21 57 30 + + 1745 24/43 19/40
44 10/28 59 19 + + 1760 25/44 20/41
45 11/4 42 25 + + 1762
46 11/11 39 39 + x 1771
47 11/18 52 30 + + 1798
48 11/25 58 29 + + 1805
Again, the SPX number is the closing price of the S&P on the Friday before each new poll comes out. The "NightOwl" column is how I voted. The "Poll" column is how the majority of participants voted. Since the poll is for 30 days out, after the first four weeks we're able to see how well we did. This week we see that I voted bullish four weeks ago along with the majority of the poll so we were both right. Therefore the Night Owl continues the year with an accuracy of 25 for 44, or 57%. The poll as a whole improves to 20 for 41 or 49% - it continues to be a tough year for the poll so far.
This week we see bullish sentiment almost back to its highest level of the year, set on Octber 28th. A spread of 58/29 might sound contrarain but last month the 58/19 spread proved to be correct so one shouldnt' be too hasty in making contrarian assumptions. For the record, I voted bullish once again, for the 12th time in a row.
Accuracy (daily calls):
Month right wrong no call conditional batting Dow
average points
January 5 7 6 3 0.533 -101
February 3 4 5 6 0.692 131
March 5 7 5 2 0.500 121
April 7 5 5 3 0.667 328
May 3 4 6 4 0.636 85
June 6 5 6 0 0.545 543
July 10 2 4 4 0.875 486
August 11 3 6 2 0.813 687
September 8 3 3 3 0.800 485
October 7 5 8 2 0.643 674
November 7 6 2 1 0.571 131
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