Well technically we're on vacation this whole week, but the performance stats continue to accumulate, so I'll just review those now for the record. The regular blog resumes this coming Sunday night.
Sentiment: Once again it's time for the latest weekly TickerSense Blogger Sentiment Poll. We continue to track the poll to see how well it performs.
Wk.# Week % Bullish % Bearish NightOwl Poll SPX Accuracy Poll
1 12/31 40 48 - - 1402 0/1
2 1/7 47 30 + + 1466 1/2
3 1/14 52 15 + + 1472 2/3
4 1/22 50 21 + + 1486 3/4
5 1/28 44 26 + + 1503 4/5
6 2/5 40 36 + + 1513 5/6
7 2/11 43 25 + + 1518 6/7
8 2/19 21 43 - - 1520 6/8
9 2/25 30 52 - - 1516 6/9
10 3/4 29 39 - - 1518 6/10
11 3/11 41 26 + + 1551 7/11
12 3/18 41 37 + + 1561 8/12
13 3/25 31 38 + - 1557 8/13 9/13
14 4/1 38 38 + x 1569 9/14 9/13
15 4/8 32 50 - - 1553 9/15 9/14
16 4/15 33 50 + - 1589 10/16 9/15
17 4/22 19 63 - - 1555 10/17 9/16
18 4/29 33 58 - - 1582 10/18 9/17
19 5/6 50 31 + + 1614 11/19 10/18
20 5/13 37 37 + x 1634 12/20 10/18
21 5/20 50 25 + + 1667 12/21 10/19
22 5/28 37 33 + + 1650 12/22 10/20
23 6/3 29 38 - - 1631 13/23 11/21
24 6/10 38 38 + x 1643 13/24 11/21
25 6/17 32 40 + - 1627 14/25 11/22
26 6/24 13 46 - - 1592 14/26 11/23
27 7/1 25 42 - - 1606 14/27 11/24
28 7/8 42 29 + + 1632 15/28 12/25
29 7/15 48 22 + + 1680 16/29 13/26
30 7/22 42 19 + + 1692 16/30 13/27
31 7/29 39 17 + + 1692 16/31 13/28
32 8/5 46 27 + + 1710 16/32 13/29
33 8/12 32 41 - - 1691 17/33 14/30
34 8/19 23 54 - - 1656 17/34 14/31
35 8/26 23 50 - - 1664 17/35 14/32
36 9/3 21 54 - - 1633 17/36 14/33
37 9/9 35 30 + + 1655 18/37 15/34
38 9/16 40 28 + + 1688 19/38 16/35
39 9/23 52 36 + + 1710 20/39 17/36
40 9/30 39 43 + - 1692 21/40 17/37
41 10/7 30 33 + - 1691 22/41 17/38
42 10/14 48 22 + + 1703 23/42 18/39
43 10/21 57 30 + + 1745 24/43 19/40
44 10/28 59 19 + + 1760 25/44 20/41
45 11/4 42 25 + + 1762 26/45 21/42
46 11/11 39 39 + x 1771 27/46 21/42
47 11/18 52 30 + + 1798 27/47 21/43
48 11/25 58 29 + + 1805 28/48 22/44
49 12/2 56 26 + + 1806
50 12/9 55 30 + + 1805
51 12/16 30 43 + - 1775
52 12/23 38 29 + + 1818
Again, the SPX number is the closing price of the S&P on the Friday before each new poll comes out. The "NightOwl" column is how I voted. The "Poll" column is how the majority of participants voted. Since the poll is for 30 days out, after the first four weeks we're able to see how well we did. This week we see that both I and the majority of the poll voted bullish four weeks ago, so we were both wrong. Therefore the Night Owl continues the year with an accuracy of 28 for 48, or 58%. And with that final call of 2013 the poll as a whole rises back to break-even at 22 for 44 or 50% - it was a tough year for the poll overall. In four weeks we'll be able to fill in the remaining blanks for the year and come up with the final numbers.
This week we see that bullish sentiment is up a bit while bearish is down a good 14 points as the majority comes back to join me in the bullish camp. I am still not seeing any bearish technicals on either the weekly or monthly SPX charts so I continue to vote bullish.
Accuracy (daily calls):
Month right wrong no call conditional batting Dow
average points
January 5 7 6 3 0.533 -101
February 3 4 5 6 0.692 131
March 5 7 5 2 0.500 121
April 7 5 5 3 0.667 328
May 3 4 6 4 0.636 85
June 6 5 6 0 0.545 543
July 10 2 4 4 0.875 486
August 11 3 6 2 0.813 687
September 8 3 3 3 0.800 485
October 7 5 8 2 0.643 674
November 6 6 2 1 0.538 123
December 6 5 4 0 0.545 202
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