Wednesday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday uncertain, low confidence.
  
• ES pivot 1781.58.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• ES Fantasy Trader standing aside

Recap

Oh great - so two nights ago I said the market would go lower, and so it went higher.  Last night I said it would go higher, so of course it went lower.  Not by much of course but it's still a miss.  Arrgh!  We now come to Wednesday, the inflection point of the week with what will be perhaps the biggest Fed announcement of the year.  Since I ordinarily call Fed days as uncertain as a matter of course, I will cut to the chase and announce that that's what I'm doing again.  Accordingly, we omit the chart-by-chart rundown tonight as superfluous.

Sentiment: Once again it's time for the latest weekly TickerSense Blogger Sentiment Poll.  We continue to track the poll to see how well it performs. 
 

Wk.# Week   % Bullish  % Bearish  NightOwl Poll SPX  Accuracy Poll

  1  12/31      40         48        -      -   1402   0/1

  2  1/7        47         30        +      +   1466   1/2

  3  1/14       52         15        +      +   1472   2/3

  4  1/22       50         21        +      +   1486   3/4

  5  1/28       44         26        +      +   1503   4/5

  6  2/5        40         36        +      +   1513   5/6

  7  2/11       43         25        +      +   1518   6/7

  8  2/19       21         43        -      -   1520   6/8

  9  2/25       30         52        -      -   1516   6/9

 10  3/4        29         39        -      -   1518   6/10

 11  3/11       41         26        +      +   1551   7/11

 12  3/18       41         37        +      +   1561   8/12

 13  3/25       31         38        +      -   1557   8/13    9/13

 14  4/1        38         38        +      x   1569   9/14    9/13

 15  4/8        32         50        -      -   1553   9/15    9/14

 16  4/15       33         50        +      -   1589   10/16   9/15

 17  4/22       19         63        -      -   1555   10/17   9/16

 18  4/29       33         58        -      -   1582   10/18   9/17

 19  5/6        50         31        +      +   1614   11/19  10/18

 20  5/13       37         37        +      x   1634   12/20  10/18

 21  5/20       50         25        +      +   1667   12/21  10/19

 22  5/28       37         33        +      +   1650   12/22  10/20

 23  6/3        29         38        -      -   1631   13/23  11/21

 24  6/10       38         38        +      x   1643   13/24  11/21

 25  6/17       32         40        +      -   1627   14/25  11/22

 26  6/24       13         46        -      -   1592   14/26  11/23

 27  7/1        25         42        -      -   1606   14/27  11/24

 28  7/8        42         29        +      +   1632   15/28  12/25

 29  7/15       48         22        +      +   1680   16/29  13/26

 30  7/22       42         19        +      +   1692   16/30  13/27

 31  7/29       39         17        +      +   1692   16/31  13/28

 32  8/5        46         27        +      +   1710   16/32  13/29

 33  8/12       32         41        -      -   1691   17/33  14/30

 34  8/19       23         54        -      -   1656   17/34  14/31

 35  8/26       23         50        -      -   1664   17/35  14/32

 36  9/3        21         54        -      -   1633   17/36  14/33

 37  9/9        35         30        +      +   1655   18/37  15/34

 38  9/16       40         28        +      +   1688   19/38  16/35

 39 9/23        52         36        +      +   1710   20/39  17/36

 40 9/30        39         43        +      -   1692   21/40  17/37

 41 10/7        30         33        +      -   1691   22/41  17/38

 42 10/14       48         22        +      +   1703   23/42  18/39

 43 10/21       57         30        +      +   1745   24/43  19/40

 44 10/28       59         19        +      +   1760   25/44  20/41

 45 11/4        42         25        +      +   1762   26/45  21/42

 46 11/11       39         39        +      x   1771   27/46  21/42

 47 11/18       52         30        +      +   1798   27/47  21/43

 48 11/25       58         29        +      +   1805

 49 12/2        56         26        +      +   1806

 50 12/9        55         30        +      +   1805

 51 12/16       30         43        +      -   1775

Again, the SPX number is the closing price of the S&P on the Friday before each new poll comes out.  The "NightOwl" column is how I voted.  The "Poll" column is how the majority of participants voted.  Since the poll is for 30 days out, after the first four weeks we're able to see how well we did.  This week we see that both I and the majority of the poll voted bullish four weeks ago, so we were both wrong.  Therefore the Night Owl continues the year with an accuracy of 27 for 47, or 57%.   The poll as a whole  drops to 21 for 42 or 49% - it continues to be a tough year for the poll so far, with just one more 2013 call to go.  And in fact right now the calls are all for 2014.

This week we find a significant drop in bullish sentiment and rise in bearish sentiment as the majroity shifts bearish.  Perosnally though I continue to vote bullish because I'm still not seeing the sort of reversal signs that would lead me to switch my vote.  I could be wrong.

Accuracy (daily calls):

Month     right wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
 
January    5      7      6           3        0.533   -101
February   3      4      5           6        0.692    131
March      5      7      5           2        0.500    121
April      7      5      5           3        0.667    328
May        3      4      6           4        0.636     85
June       6      5      6           0        0.545    543
July      10      2      4           4        0.875    486
August    11      3      6           2        0.813    687
September  8      3      3           3        0.800    485
October    7      5      8           2        0.643    674
November   6      6      2           1        0.538    123
December   5      5      2           0        0.500    160

     And the winner is...

OK, so while I'm officially calling Wednesday uncertain, I'll admit I've still looked at the charts and the bias I'm seeing is higher.  I don't know how they know this, but someone apparently is figuring the taper is on hold for December.  We'll see, as this crazy week rolls on.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats: the account remains at $110,625 after 17 trades (13 for 17  total, 7 for7 longs, 6 for 10 short) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/13.  Tonight we stand aside.again.