Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
- Thursday higher, low confidence.
- ES pivot 1839.58. Holding above is bullish.
- Friday bias uncertain technically.
- Monthly outlook: bias higher.
- ES Fantasy Trader standing aside
This is very odd. It's feeling like the summer of 2011 or whenever it was with the Greek/European debt catastrophe all over again with wild opposite triple digit swings in the Dow every day - but this time the VIX isn't in the stratosphere, it's down in the dumps. Huh? I'm not gonna lie (why do people always tell you they're not going to lie - do you otherwise expect they would?), I've been at this for 10 years now and I don't remember another situation like we've got now. I don't get it. If someone can explain these market moves to me, I'm all ears. Meanwhile, we'll just hit the charts again even though that doesn't seem to be very productive lately.
The technicals (daily)
The Dow: After retracing Tuesday's big dump on Wednesday, the Dow continued on higher on Thursday to put us right back in last week's congestion zone. It's like this week never even happened. But there were some technical effects. We shot right out of the descending RTC for a bullish setup and we got a bullish stochastic crossover. RSI is now off oversold so with two white soldiers this chart now officially looks bullish.
The VIX: The VIX has been a bit squirrely lately too. It ended Wednesday exactly unchanged on a tall hammer tacked on to the bottom of Tuesday's big drop. That leaves the VIX right about at almost year-long support. With the stochastic about to form a bullish crossover I'd be very surprised if the VIX had much more downside left to it at these levels.
Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are modestly higher at 12:41 AM EST with ES up by 0.05%. ES is now in a new rising RTC and I'm impressed that it has the chops to continue higher at all after two days of decent gains. In fact we're now above last months' record close of 1841 and the upper BB isn't til 1851. And with two white soldiers and indicators not yet overbought, this chart looks continued bullish.
ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot jumps from 1826.67 to 1839.58. But we were so far above the old number that even with a flat overnight, we're still above the new pivot, so this remains bullish.
Dollar index: At least I can still get something right - last night I wrote "this chart is now looking mildly bullish.". That proved to be something of an understatement as the dollar put in 2/3 of an evening star with a big gap-up inverted hammer that peaked at recent resistance just below its upper BB. And yet it also caused a bullish stochastic crossover. Thusly conflicted, we're not calling this chart tonight.
Euro: And I got the euro right too when I said last night "it's looking bearish for Wednesday." The euro put in a big red candle to finish at 1.3599. That was enough to get indicators off overbought, create a bearish stochastic crossover, and drop it out of its rising RTC for a bearish setup. We are however seeing a 0.11% gain in the overnight but it's not clear how long that can hang on. I'm going to guess it won't.
Transportation: After some yo-yo action the past three days, the trans resumed their march into record territory on Wednesday, hitting the upper BB in the process and moving the indicators overbought, moving right back into their rising RTC. That all looks bullish to me and I don't yet see a reversal sign here.
Sentiment: Once again it's time for the latest weekly TickerSense Blogger Sentiment Poll. We continue to track the poll to see how well it performs.
Wk.# Week % Bullish % Bearish NightOwl Poll SPX Accuracy Poll
1 12/31 40 48 - - 1402 0/1
2 1/7 47 30 + + 1466 1/2
3 1/14 52 15 + + 1472 2/3
4 1/22 50 21 + + 1486 3/4
5 1/28 44 26 + + 1503 4/5
6 2/5 40 36 + + 1513 5/6
7 2/11 43 25 + + 1518 6/7
8 2/19 21 43 - - 1520 6/8
9 2/25 30 52 - - 1516 6/9
10 3/4 29 39 - - 1518 6/10
11 3/11 41 26 + + 1551 7/11
12 3/18 41 37 + + 1561 8/12
13 3/25 31 38 + - 1557 8/13 9/13
14 4/1 38 38 + x 1569 9/14 9/13
15 4/8 32 50 - - 1553 9/15 9/14
16 4/15 33 50 + - 1589 10/16 9/15
17 4/22 19 63 - - 1555 10/17 9/16
18 4/29 33 58 - - 1582 10/18 9/17
19 5/6 50 31 + + 1614 11/19 10/18
20 5/13 37 37 + x 1634 12/20 10/18
21 5/20 50 25 + + 1667 12/21 10/19
22 5/28 37 33 + + 1650 12/22 10/20
23 6/3 29 38 - - 1631 13/23 11/21
24 6/10 38 38 + x 1643 13/24 11/21
25 6/17 32 40 + - 1627 14/25 11/22
26 6/24 13 46 - - 1592 14/26 11/23
27 7/1 25 42 - - 1606 14/27 11/24
28 7/8 42 29 + + 1632 15/28 12/25
29 7/15 48 22 + + 1680 16/29 13/26
30 7/22 42 19 + + 1692 16/30 13/27
31 7/29 39 17 + + 1692 16/31 13/28
32 8/5 46 27 + + 1710 16/32 13/29
33 8/12 32 41 - - 1691 17/33 14/30
34 8/19 23 54 - - 1656 17/34 14/31
35 8/26 23 50 - - 1664 17/35 14/32
36 9/3 21 54 - - 1633 17/36 14/33
37 9/9 35 30 + + 1655 18/37 15/34
28 9/16 40 28 + + 1688 19/38 16/35
39 9/23 52 36 + + 1710 20/39 17/36
40 9/30 39 43 + - 1692 21/40 17/37
41 10/7 30 33 + - 1691 22/41 17/38
42 10/14 48 22 + + 1703 23/42 18/39
43 10/21 57 30 + + 1745 24/43 19/40
44 10/28 59 19 + + 1760 25/44 20/41
45 11/4 42 25 + + 1762 26/45 21/42
46 11/11 39 39 + x 1771 27/46 21/42
47 11/18 52 30 + + 1798 27/47 21/43
48 11/25 58 29 + + 1805 28/48 22/44
49 12/2 56 26 + + 1806 29/49 23/45
50 12/9 55 30 + + 1805 30/50 24/46
51 12/16 30 43 + - 1775 31/51 24/47
52 12/23 38 29 + + 1818
2014
01 12/30 50 23 + + 1841
02 1/6 40 44 + - 1831
03 1/13 ?? ?? + ? 1842
Again, the SPX number is the closing price of the S&P on the Friday before each new poll comes out. The "NightOwl" column is how I voted. The "Poll" column is how the majority of participants voted. Since the poll is for 30 days out, after the first four weeks we're able to see how well we did. This week we see that I voted bullish four weeks ago, but the majority of the poll voted bearish so I was right and they were wrong. Therefore with just one week left to go, the Night Owl continues 2013 with an accuracy of 31 for 51, or 61%. And the poll as a whole dropped a bit to 24 for 47 or 51%. Next week we'll be able to fill in the last remaining blank for 2013 and come up with the final numbers for the year.
This week we see that Ticker Sense has not updated the poll, even though the week is almost over (I'm not sure what's up with that) , so I have no new numbers to report other than the fact that I personally voted bullish once again this week. The last time I voted bearish was last September 3rd and for the life of me I'm still not seeing any reversal signs on either the weekly or monthly SPX charts.
Accuracy (daily calls):
Month right wrong no call conditional batting Dow
average points
January 1 5 4 0 0.167 -250
And the winner is...
I almost hate to make any call anymore having been so wrong this month, but the technicals do look bullish to me tonight so for whatever that's worth I'm going waay out on the limb and calling Thursday higher.
ES Fantasy Trader
Portfolio stats: the account continues the new year at $100,000 as we wait for the right moment to enter our first trade of 2014.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Due to some people who just won't honor my request not to post spam on my blog, I have had to re-enable comment moderation. Comments may take up to 24 hour to appear, depending on when they're made. Sorry about that.