Thursday, January 9, 2014

Thursday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Thursday uncertain..
  • ES pivot 1830.92.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Friday bias higher technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • ES Fantasy Trader standing aside

Huh - well apparently we are back in one of these periods of random turbulence where the market just gets bounced around for no readily discernible reason.  Last night I said we were going higher, so the Dow went lower on Wednesday.  Doh!  We can't even blame the Fed minutes, which had no apparent impact.  Oh well - we move on to Thursday and go from there.

The technicals (daily)

The Dow: On Wednesday the Dow was unable to capitalize on Tuesday's gains, contrary to what I expected, and plopped right back into its descending RTC. canceling an incipient bullish stochastic crossover in the process.  With the indicators neither oversold nor overbought, that leaves this chart in an inscrutable morass.  So this one is just too tough for me tonight.

The VIXAt least I had the VIX right last night when I wrote "there's still room to run lower here" as it closed down a tad, off 0.39%.  But it was a funny move with a red spinning top sitting in dark cloud cover position atop Tuesday's candle.  But with indicators continuing to decline and as we remain in a descending RTC, I still see no sign of a higher VIX.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are just barely higher at 1:01 AM EST with ES up by all of a single tick.  We got a lopsided green spinning top out of ES on Wednesday but with indicators continuing to rise and no evidence of it wanting to fall in the overnight, this chart continues to look ever so slightly bullish.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot drops from 1828.33  to 1830.92.  Once again we remain above the new pivot so this indicator is still bullish.

Dollar index:  With ECB news coming out early Thursday morning, I expect that that is what will be moving the euro, and therefore the dollar by proxy, therefore we omit this chart tonight.

Euro: For the same reason, we also omit this chart tonight.

Transportation: Last night I wrote "this chart now turns bullish" and so it did, up 0.31% on Wednesday.  But it was with a hanging man that flattened out the indicators so this chart becomes a bit murky tonight - coudl go either way.

Accuracy (daily calls): 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    1      3      1           0       0.250     -126

     And the winner is...

In general, the charts aren't all that clear tonight.  I see a slight positive bias but with potentially market-moving news coming from the ECB, I'm afraid I'm just going to have to call Thursday uncertain.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats:  the account continues the new year at $100,000 as we wait for the right moment to enter our first trade of 2014.

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