Thursday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday higher, low confidence.
• ES pivot 1742.25.  Holding above is bullish.
• Friday bias uncertain.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.

Recap

I'm awfully glad that I called the Dow "uncertain" for Wednesday, as it crossed the zero line, let's see, one, two, three, uh, a bunch of times before finally closing down all of five points.  When will all this indecision resolve?  We whip through the charts in a hurry tonight because I had a long day, having had to get up at the crack of 9:30 AM so I'm just way too tired to do a lot of typing right now.

The technicals (daily)

The Dow: A doji, knocking on the 200 day MA's door for the second day in a row.   Indicators still oversold, Thursday may do it.

The VIX:  Up 4.4% on Wednesday on a bearish harami, not quite centered.   Vaguely looks like a symmetrical triangle - that would be bad as it portends a higher VIX.  But the candle and overbought indicators suggest lower to come.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are higher at 12:40 AM EST with ES up by 0.24%.  ES spinning top Tuesday, doji star Wednesday, support at 1737 holding, oversold indicators, positive overnight pin action all suggest higher on Thursday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot dips from 1743.75  to 1742.25.  That leaves ES a bit higher above the new pivot than before so this indicator is now bullish.

Dollar index: Down a bit Wednesday on an inverted hammer, but these candles are all disjointed and not telling a real story.  Bearish stochastic crossover though suggests lower to come..

Euro: Slow drift higher, nearly out of descending RTC, indicators continue oversold, continued higher looks likely.

Transportation: A hammer here on Wednesday, bouncing off lower BB.  Support at 7052 continues to hold.  Oversold indicators also support a move higher.


Accuracy (daily calls):

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    5      10      6           0       0.333     64
February   1       1      1           0       0.500   -253

     And the winner is...

Tonight I'm going with the bulls, more out of an absence of bearish signs than any roaring bullish signs.  So it's Thursday higher.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats:  the account remains at $103,000 after the first trade of 2014.  We are now 1 for 1 total, 1 for 1 long, 0 for 0 short.  Tonight we stand aside.