Friday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday uncertain.
  
• ES pivot 1841.00.  Holding above is bullish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.

Recap

It was a close one on Thursday as the Dow meandered close to the unchanged line but ultimately it did end down a bit saving my call for a lower close.  As we continue this trendless trading, can we perhaps finally glean some direction from the charts for Friday?  No telling unless we take a look ...

The technicals (daily)

The Dow: So just as on Wednesday we moved from the lower end of the trading range to the upper, on Thursday we dropped right back down again.  In fact, if you squint a bit you can sort of see a developing megaphone.  Thursday's big doji star certainly seems to suggest that Friday may head right back up again.  But Thursday's action was still not the break we're looking for.  So for the time being, we're stuck in the 16,270 - 16,367 range.

The VIX:  I thought the VIX might finally be able to capitalize on a big one day gain but it was not to be as it came right back down again on Thursday, off 2% to break its 200 day MA again - now 12 times in 14 days.  With predominately sideways action here, there's just no telling where we're going next.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are higher at 12:39 AM EDT with ES up by 0.22%.  On Thursday ES remained in its vaguely descending RTC with a small red spinning top.  But these have not been worth much lately.  We did test an important support level at 1839 and it held.  And the overnight so far seems to be confirming the doji, so we now have at least a suggestion of a move higher on Friday, albeit one that requires confirmation.  We also do not yet have a bullish stochastic crossover.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot falls again from 1850.92  to 1841.00.  That drop combined with ES's gain in the overnight finally puts us back above the new pivot so this indicator now turns bullish.

Dollar index: The dollar continues its bizarre march higher backwards with a third straight gain on a red candle.  I thought we were going lower but it was not to be.  I just don't get this chart.

Euro: Last night I wrote "the selling may not be over yet:" and it wasn't s the euro put in a third red candle in a row.  We now have a new descending RTC going here and no indication of a reversal yet, despite now having entered oversold territory.

Transportation: Last night I wrote "DCB or at least a doji is possible on Thursday here.".  Well the cat did not bounce but we did get a nice hammer that left the trans oversold.  SO there's at least a hint of a reversal here, though one which requires confirmation.


Accuracy (daily calls):

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    5      10      6           0       0.333     64
February   5       2      2           1       0.750    107
March     11       3      5           0       0.786    296

     And the winner is...

Tonight I'm starting to see signs that a move higher is coming, but they're signs that require confirmation.  It would be premature to call the market higher just yet, but it would also not be prudent to be going short at these levels.  So I guess again I just have to call Friday uncertain.  We should have more clarity after the bell rings.  Have a great weekend and see you again Sunday night.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats:  the account remains at $103,000 after the first trade of 2014.  We are now 1 for 1 total, 1 for 1 long, 0 for 0 short.  Tonight we stand aside.