Monday, April 21, 2014

Monday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Monday higher, low confidence.
  • ES pivot 1856.33Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.

Hmm - last Wednesday night I said Thursday would close lower unless ES broke above its pivot.  Well, ES did just that early Thursday morning and the SPX did indeed close higher.  However, my forecast is for the Dow and that closed lower.  On the other hand, that was entirely attributable to a sudden collapse in IBM, so I think the basic premise was still correct.  I'm sort of conflicted as to whether to call this right or wrong.  I think (since I make the rules) we'll just call this one a push and move on to Monday where hopefully we can get back into a normal market rhythm, but without the blues.

The technicals

The Dow: Last Thursday the Dow gave us a small spinning top, at least hinting at a reversal after a nice three day run.  But we remain in a rising RTC and the indicators are not yet overbought, so this one requires confirmation.  Can't say for sure right now.

The VIX:  And the VIX continued its plunge on Thursday, down another 5.78% and unable to reclaim the 200 day MA.  There's support just above 13 and I think we're going to test that on Monday.  No real reversal signs here yet.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are higher at 12:34 AM EDT, with ES up by 0.11%.  ES continues to look bullish after a fourth green candle in a row on Thursday.  There's no resistance til 1865 and with indicators not yet overbought I see no reason why we can't hit that number on Monday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot rises again from 1850.08  to 1856.33.  We remain above the new pivot so this indicator sis now bullish.

Dollar index: The dollar just doesn't want to retrace last week's big gap up and put in an unusual pattern - side by side white lines.  That is bullish, and the rising indicators support that.

Euro: The euro has been finding support at 1.3812 for four days now after a failed breakout attempt on Thursday.  It looks like we're in for some sideways action here for a day or two.

Transportation: And finally the trans motored on higher Thursday to extend their streak to four.  Indicators continued climbing and with no resistance til 7713 (which is also the upper BB) I'd say we're headed up to take look-see there.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    5      10      6           0       0.333
February   5       2      2           1       0.750    107

March     12       3      6           0       0.800    431
April      6       2      3           0       0.750    301

     And the winner is...

Tonight the charts continue to look bullish and in the absence of any reversal signs the logical call is simply for Monday higher.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats:  the account remains at $105,625 after two trades in 2014, staring with $100,000.  We are now 2 for 2 total, 2 for 2 long, 0 for 0 short.  Tonight we stand aside.


  1. Hello friend. Do you sometimes wonder why you stand aside so often? With summer approaching, you may need a chair. (!)

    It's okay to make a mistake if your decision is based on your best empirical evidence at the time. I make mistakes all the time and there's no end in sight. lol

    Rooting for you. Get in there and make a splash. xoxo


    1. Actually, I've been wondering why I do this for some time now. To be completely honest about it there are two reasons: first I got badly burned on two trades last year that went horribly wrong and left me in a big hole. It seems strange to be bummed about a paper trade that is of no real consequence, but there you are. The other reason is that this item comes at the end of the blog and often by the time I get there I'm tired and all I want to do it go to bed, so I just blow it off.

      But you're right - I should either just discontinue it or start trading. I'd been doing pretty well at this so I guess I'll just start taking a bit more "risk", especially since there's really no risk at all involved here :-)


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