Wednesday, April 2, 2014

Wednesday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Wednesday higher, low confidence.
  • ES pivot 1872.92Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of week bias higher technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.

It was nice to start off the month and the new quarter with a win as the technicals paid off, no fooling, helped out by some good job numbers.  The leaves us at an interesting juncture so we return to the charts to plot our course forward to Wednesday.

The technicals (daily)

The Dow: Last night I wrote "with the upper BB still at 16,516, I'd say it's entirely possible to see further upside on Tuesday" and how about that, the Dow poked through the upper BB before closing just below it.  That leaves us with a bullish three white soldiers but a conundrum having hit the upper BB.  Do we bounce off or start climbing it?  The high-level bullish stochastic crossover is playing out well, money flow is rising, and RSI has only now just barely gone overbought.  And having easily cleared resistance (finally) at 16,462, it sure looks like we could see yet another day of gains on Wednesday.

The VIXI didn't want to take a stand on th3e VIX last night because it was sitting on very strong support with a spinning top.  Well the support just melted away on Wednesday as the VIX dropped 5.62% to 13.10.  And with a completed bearish stochastic crossover from a low level and the lower BB not til 12.79, the VIX just might want to take a look at that level on Wednesday.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are higher at 12:32 AM EDT with ES up by 0.17%.  We now have three white soldiers in ES too and a bullish RTC trigger.  RSI has just hit overbought but the stochastic continues rising as does money flow, so that's all bullish.  Also the overnight is continuing higher.  The only question is if it will bounce off the upper BB it just hit.  I don't think we're sufficiently overbought for that to happen immediately.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot rises once again  from 1862.50  to 1872.92.  Just like last night, we remain above the new pivot so this indicator stays positive.

Dollar index: the dollar continued its weird ways on Tuesday, this time dropping 0.01% on a green hammer.  This chart is pretty indecisive tonight so I'll just leave it at that..

Euro: There's a bit more clarity in the euro, which rose again on Tuesday for its own three white soldiers.  The bullish stochastic crossover is complete, we have a new rising RTC and momentum is rising but the indicators are not yet overbought.  So I say we go higher yet again on Wednesday.

Transportation: The trans had another very good day Tuesday, doubling the Dow's gains and hitting their own upper BB exiting a descending RTC with a bullish trigger.  Indicators are still not overbought suggesting at least a bit more room to run Wednesday, especially since we cleared resistance at 7592.

Accuracy (daily calls):

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    5      10      6           0       0.333
February   5       2      2           1       0.750    107

March     12       3      6           0       0.800    431

April      1       0      0           0       1.000     75    

     And the winner is...

After three nice up days, I start to get at least a bit cautious about calling for more, but honestly I'm just not seeing any bearish reversal signs in the charts tonight.  So logic dictates a call of Wednesday higher.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats:  the account remains at $103,000 after the first trade of 2014.  We are now 1 for 1 total, 1 for 1 long, 0 for 0 short.  Tonight we stand aside.

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