Thursday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday higher, low confidence
• ES pivot 1951.00.  Holding above is bullish.
• Friday bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• ES Fantasy Trader stands aside.

Recap

Well Mr. Market heard Aunt Janet speak Wednesday afternoon, and hey, he likes it!  With the Dow ending up 98 points - yowsa!  And, ahem, do note that last night I said we had a bullish bias to the market.  But nothing ventured, nothing lost.  And so now with that little bit of excitement out of the way, let's get back to the technicals and figure out where Thursday's going.

The technicals

The Dow: It was pretty classic on Wednesday.  The Dow spent the morning in a holding pattern until the Fed announcement and then it was cleared for takeoff.  That's really all you need to know about today's action.  Technically, it was out biggest bump since the fifth. and it firmly consolidated the rising RTC,  And with indicators now all rising off oversold, and with no resistance until 16,952, it looks like there's still room to run on Thursday.

The VIX: Last night I wrote about the VIX  "In my book, that spells lower."  "That" being a bunch of technical mumbo-jumbo.  But, whoa!  The mumbo worked, to the tune of a whopping 12% gap-down red marubozu crater for the VIX that busted through resistance at 10.76 and stopping only at the lower BB at 10.61.  Holy moly - this was the biggest one-day drop since February 6th.  And the bearish stochastic crossover is confirmed in a big way.  The thing is,  having now hit the lower BB, my expectation would be for some sideways motion rather than any further down movement.  We'll see!

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are slightly higher at 12:21 AM EDT with ES up just 0.04%.  Like everything else, ES had a big day on Wednesday, blasting through resistance at `1952 into record territory.  Indicators are still not yet overbought and we remain in a rising RTC.  So that's all bullish.  But the look of the chart is exponential and we're off the left edge of the RTC, so a pause might be in order here on Thursday.  The pattern for now at least doesn't look bearish.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot jumps from 1938,75 to 1951.00.  So even with only a small gain in the overnight, we still remain above the new pivot so this indicator remains bullish.

Dollar index:  Last night I couldn't get a read on this chart and hey, it closed down just 0l06% on Wednesday with a wide-ranging doji star centered about its 200 day MA.  That's about as indecisive as it gets.  We did trade just outside the descending RTC for a bullish setup, but that's not enough for me to call this chart higher.  Once again, I need some confirmation.

Euro:  Last night I wrote simply enough "Wednesday should be higher".  And the euro did indeed closed up a bit, though there seems to have been some sort of delayed reaction as the new overnight posted a big gap up.  In any event, with the indicators continuing higher, this chart still looks bullish.

Transportation: Last night I wrote "this chart looks set to move higher to me."  I should say so, as the trans also had an outsized day, up 1.51% on a jolly green maruboz for their best day since May 12th.  This rocketship provided us with a bullish RTC trigger, sent all thr indicator up off oversold and confirmed the bullish stochastic crossover.  And with the upper BB not til 8262, there's still room to run here.

Accuracy:

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    5      10      6           0       0.333     64
February   5       2      2           1       0.750    107
March     12       3      6           0       0.800    431
April      9       3      5           0       0.750    482
May        6       7      6           0       0.462    -67
June       6       3      3           2       0.667    161

     And the winner is...

Tonight we see signs that perhaps the winning streak is getting ahead of itself a bit.  I note too that the NYSE A/D line is approaching toppy levels.  On the other hand, we don't see any outright reversal signs, so I'm going to go ahead and call Thursday higher, with the caveat that I don't expect a large move and it might end up as a doji day.

ES Fantasy Trader
 
Portfolio stats:  the account now rises to $113,000 after seven trades in 2014, starting with $100,000.  We are now 5 for 7 total, 3 for 3 long, 2 for 3 short, and one push.  Tonight we stand aside.