Wednesday, July 30, 2014

Wednesday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Wednesday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 1968.17.  Holding below is bearish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.

Tuesday was a good example of the kinds of weirdness I was expecting this week.  I called the close higher and we started off smartly with a nice advance that retook the 17K level for the Dow.  Things were looking good until exactly 2:20 PM when it began a big slide that ended with the Dow down 70 points, handily snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.  Only reason I could find for that had something to do with new sanctions against Russia.  When in doubt, blame the Rooskies, I always say.

So with Wednesday being a Fed day, we cut right to the chase - which is that I never make a call on these days - there's just too much headline risk.  So we're also skipping the chart run-down tonight - not much point to it, considering.  I'm sure Wednesday will provide plenty of entertainment.  Pass the popcorn!


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    5      10      6           0       0.333
February   5       2      2           1       0.750    107
March     12       3      6           0       0.800    431
April      9       3      5           0       0.750    482
May        6       7      6           0       0.462    -67
June       8      10      3           2       0.500    132

July       5       4      3           3       0.667    322

     And the winner is...

Flip a coin.  I really think anything could happen on Wednesday.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats:  the account remains at $113,000 after seven trades in 2014, starting with $100,000.  We are now 5 for 7 total, 3 for 3 long, 2 for 3 short, and one push.  Tonight we stand aside.

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