Friday, August 15, 2014


The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Friday higher, low confidence.
  • ES pivot 1950.17.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Next week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.

The technicals played out exactly as expected on Thursday with some modest but non-trivial gains in the Dow as Putinoia continued to abate.  So now let's see how the week might end as we check the charts for Friday.

The technicals

The Dow: I called the Dow higher for Thursday because Wednesday non-confirmed Tuesday's star and there were no other bearish signs in sight.  That's all it took, and we gained a respectable 62 points out of it.

The VIX:  Last night I wrote "there's nothing bullish about this chart for Thursday".   And indeed there wasn't as the VIX fell another 3.72% to remain in a now fairly long running descending RTC and confirming the break under the 200 day MA.  But indicators are now quite oversold and the steochastic has just started to creep around in preparation for a bullish crosover - perhaps early next week.  Meantime, there's no support til 11.53 and without a reversal candle I'd have to say the VIX isn't done going lower yet.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are higher at 12:23 AM EDT with ES up just one tick, exactly where we were last night at this time.   ES had a decent day Thursday and remains nicely inside a rising RTC.  However, the indicators have reached overbought and the stochastic is starting to flatten out in preparation for a bearish crossover, though we're not there yet.  Still, in the absence of any bearish candles, I'd have to say this one still has some room to run.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot ticks up from 1940.67 to 1950.17.  We're still above the new pivot, though by less than the previous night for the second day in a row.  Nevertheless, it's enough to call this indicator bullish.

Dollar index:  On Thursday the dollar continued its mysterious ways, this time losing all of 0.01% but on a decent size hanging mannish looking thing that doesn't really do much to confirm or disconfirm Wednesday's doji.  The stochastic continues to rise and RSI continues to fall - and I continue to be confused.

Euro: On Thursday the euro pretty much put in a rerun of Wednesday with a second tall star that closed at 1.3368.  So the uncertainty simply continues here - this one is anybody's guess for Friday.

Transportation:  Dow Theorists take note - the trans continued to outperform the Dow on Thursday, up another 0.66% to remain easily inside a rising RTC.  Indicators have now hit overbought and the stochastic has just started to flatten out before a bearish crossover but there's still no immediate reversal signs here so this chart just looks higher again on Friday.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    5      10      6           0       0.333
February   5       2      2           1       0.750    107
March     12       3      6           0       0.800    431
April      9       3      5           0       0.750    482
May        6       7      6           0       0.462    -67
June       8      10      3           2       0.500    132
July       6       4      4           3       0.692    639
August     3       4      1           1       0.500   -139

     And the winner is...

It looks like we may be nearing a short-term top soon, like in the early part of next week, but we're not there yet.  Though the indicators all are starting to show signs of being overextended, there aren'y yet any reversal signs in either the candles or RTC's.  Therefore, I'll jsut have to cautiously call Friday higher.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats:  the account remains $114,250 after eight trades in 2014, starting with $100,000.  We are now 6 for 8 total, 4 for 4 long, 2 for 3 short, and one push.  Tonight we stand aside.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Due to some people who just won't honor my request not to post spam on my blog, I have had to re-enable comment moderation. Comments may take up to 24 hour to appear, depending on when they're made. Sorry about that.