Friday, September 19, 2014

Friday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Friday higher, low confidence.
  • ES pivot 2001.42.  Holding above is bullish.  Switching to the "Z" contract.
  • Next week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.

Mr. Market had an excellent day indeed on Thursday, with the Dow motoring to another record close on a day when the UK appeared to be on the verge of collapse.  This finally got us some decent action, chartwise, so let's see how this will affect Friday, op-ex and all.

Political Rant

I've been sitting on my hands long enough and I can't stand it anymore.  At a time when the world is falling apart at the seams and we desperately need a real leader, all we've got is an Empty Tan Suit that goes golfing, or fund raising, or playing basketball.

Compare Roosevelt's speech after the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor (12/8/41):

"No matter how long it may take us to overcome this premeditated invasion, the American people in their righteous might will win through to absolute victory...  With confidence in our armed forces, with the unbounding determination of our people, we will gain the inevitable triumph -- so help us God."
to Obama on dealing with the Middle East Head Choppers Society (8/28/14):
“I don’t want to put the cart before the horse.  We don’t have a strategy yet...  We need to make sure that we’ve got clear plans, that we’re developing them. At that point, I will consult with Congress and make sure that their voices are heard.  But there’s no point in me asking for action on the part of Congress before I know exactly what it is that is going to be required for us to get the job done.”
The man is a nice guy, but it is painfully clear that he is just not up to the requirements of the job.  And now, the market.

The technicals

The Dow: It was pretty much up, up and away for the Dow on it put in a big triple digit marubozu that blasted right through its upper BB and rejected Wednesday's spinning top in a big way.  That also drove the indicators overbought but the stochastic is still rising and nowhere near even starting a bearish crossover.  So with no resistance left and a rising RTC in place, technically this one just looks continued bullish.

The VIX:  Last night I wrote "I'd not be surprised to see at least a bit lower on Thursday".  And indeed the VIX fell almost 5% with a gap down forming a new descending RTC.  The pattern is now quite bearish and with no support til 11.33, I'd think the VIX will want to take a look at that number before long.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are higher at 12:19 AM EDT with ES up a substantial 0.64%.   Like the Dow, on Thursday ES continued to clamber up its upper BB into record territory to keep a four day winning streak going.  Nothing bearish on this chart.  Tonight we switch to the "Z" contract.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot ticks up from 2001.17 to 2001.42.  Tonight we remain well above the new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:   On Thursday, the dollar continued to be stumped by resistance at the 57.33 level ($USDUPX) with a small hanging man near hte top of Wednesday's big run.  The indicators continue to drop off overbought but this is the sort of reversal warning that requires confirmation, so no call here.

Euro: On Thursday the euro put in a strange tall green marubozu but still lost a bit, as it began with a big loss, down to 1.2843 before recovering.  I think Friday's euro will depend a lot on the Scottish vote so I've nothing more to say about this chart tonight.

Transportation:  Last night I wrote "there could still be more upside available here" and so there was, with the trans advancing another 0;28% as it crawled up the upper BB.  Indicators are now officially overbought but the stochastic is still rising after completing a bullish crossover.  So despite the record close, there really isn't anything bearish about this chart.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    5      10      6           0       0.333
February   5       2      2           1       0.750    107
March     12       3      6           0       0.800    431
April      9       3      5           0       0.750    482
May        6       7      6           0       0.462    -67
June       8      10      3           2       0.500    132

July       6       4      4           3       0.692    639
August     8       7      2           2       0.588     81

September  2       6      3           0       0.250    -29

     And the winner is...

The indicators continue to remain bullish tonight and as the Scottish vote looks like it's going to be "no" (to independence) the market seems to be reacting with "yes".  So with a nod to the usual bearish implications of the triple witching Friday, I still get the feeling that we ware going to see Friday higher this time.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats:  the account remains $114,250 after eight trades in 2014, starting with $100,000.  We are now 6 for 8 total, 4 for 4 long, 2 for 3 short, and one push.  Tonight we stand aside.


  1. Michele, you are a candle in the darkness. So true on the presidential stuff. Oh my Lord. But hey, you need to know that your comments are read out there with interest. Well, by me anyway. I'm the one that always gives you the xoxo's lol lol Smile.

    1. Well thanks again for the kind words. It's always nice to know people are reading my demented ramblings.


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