Thursday, February 26, 2015

Thursday depends on ES pivot

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Thursday higher only if ES remains above its pivot, else lower.
  • ES pivot 2111.75.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Friday bias lower technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • Single stock trader: VZ a hold.

As sometimes happens, events conspired on Wednesday to put me way behind,  Accordingly, tonight is a Night Owl Lite - just conclusions, no blab.

The technicals

The Dow:  Still overbought, still in a rising RTC.  A spinning top might be a reversal but needs confirmation.

The VIX:  Rose Wednesday on bearish divergence.  A tall doji nearly hit the lower BB.  With oversold indicators, this could move higher Thursday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:18 AM EST with ES up  0.09%.  A fat red spinning top Wednesday suggests indecision and possible topping.  Little clarity from the overnight.  Indicators continue overbought.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2110.75 to 2111.75. Barely above new pivot so nominally bullish.

Dollar index:  Big gap down offers bearish confirmation of a hanging man and inverted hammer.  Bearish stochastic crossover too - looks bearish again Thursday.

Euro:  Tuesday's doji confirmed with a green candle.  Positive follow through in the overnight suggests more upside Thursday.

Transportation:  More bearish divergence - fell while the Dow rose.  Near bearish engulfing candle sent the indicators lower.   Looks bearish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           2       0.667    183

     And the winner is...

The overall look tonight is bearish but ES isn't participating.  Because of its proximity to the pivot, I['ll make it a conditional call.  IF ES remains above its pivot by mid-morning Thursday we close higher, else lower.

Single Stock Trader

VZ little changed.  200 day MA should provide support.

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