Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
- Thursday higher only if ES remains above its pivot, else lower.
- ES pivot 2111.75. Holding above is bullish.
- Friday bias lower technically.
- Monthly outlook: bias higher.
- Single stock trader: VZ a hold.
As sometimes happens, events conspired on Wednesday to put me way behind, Accordingly, tonight is a Night Owl Lite - just conclusions, no blab.
The technicals
The Dow: Still overbought, still in a rising RTC. A spinning top might be a reversal but needs confirmation.
The VIX: Rose Wednesday on bearish divergence. A tall doji nearly hit the lower BB. With oversold indicators, this could move higher Thursday.
Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:18 AM EST with ES up 0.09%. A fat red spinning top Wednesday suggests indecision and possible topping. Little clarity from the overnight. Indicators continue overbought.
ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2110.75 to 2111.75. Barely above new pivot so nominally bullish.
Dollar index: Big gap down offers bearish confirmation of a hanging man and inverted hammer. Bearish stochastic crossover too - looks bearish again Thursday.
Euro: Tuesday's doji confirmed with a green candle. Positive follow through in the overnight suggests more upside Thursday.
Transportation: More bearish divergence - fell while the Dow rose. Near bearish engulfing candle sent the indicators lower. Looks bearish.
Accuracy:
average points
January 8 6 4 1 0.563 627
February 6 4 5 2 0.667 183
And the winner is...
The overall look tonight is bearish but ES isn't participating. Because of its proximity to the pivot, I['ll make it a conditional call. IF ES remains above its pivot by mid-morning Thursday we close higher, else lower.
Single Stock Trader
VZ little changed. 200 day MA should provide support.
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