Friday, March 27, 2015

Friday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Friday higher.
  • ES pivot 2046.83.  Holding above is bullish
  • Next week bias higher technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • Single stock trader: VZ nearing a reversal...

How is this day different from all other days?  Well, for the first time in four, we didn't end at session lows.  The picture has changed once again so let's run it up the flag pole and see who salutes.

The technicals

The Dow:  Last night I wrote "The lower BB would seem to be the next logical destination at 17,613 [I had the number written in wrong last night] and I think that's where we're headed."  And check it out - Dow's low on Thursday - 17579, lower BB - 17,579.  Veni, vidi, bounced off-di.  This leaves us with a nice tomahawk hammer.  I do wish the stochastic was getting ready for a bullish crossover, but it isn't yet.  So this is a reversal sign but one that requires confirmation.

The VIX:  Last night I wrote "more upside is not out of the question".  And that' question was answered with another 2.33% advance.  But it was with a stubby gap-up red spinning top that just touched the upper BB, that well-known short-circuiter of VIX rallies.  This looks like 2/3 of an evening star so I'd say we have a good reversal sign here even though the indicators haven't quite hit overbought yet.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 1:06 AM EDT with ES up a non-trivial 0.24%  On Thursday ES put in a classic hammer that almost touched the lower BB on oversold indicators.  This is a reversal warning which the overnight seems to be confirming so far.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2065.08 to 2046.83. But tonight ES has finally moved back above its new pivot so this indicator now turns back to bullish again.

Dollar index:  Last night I wrote "I still think the dollar moves higher by the end of the week.".  And right on cue the dollar delivered an impressive 0.49% green bullish engulfing marubozu on Thursday.  Along with indicators that now appear to have bottomed at oversold and a stochastic that has now executed a bullish crossover, this chart looks ready to move higher again on Friday.

Euro:  And last night I also wrote "I'd look for lower here soon.". And soon came right away with the euro right back down to 1.0882 on Thursday on a red bearish engulfing candle.  With indicators topped at overbought and a completed bearish stochastic crossover, and the new overnight trading outside the rising RTC for ea bearish setup, this chart looks nothing but lower on Friday.

Transportation:  It sure was MA day on Thursday as the trans kept right on falling.  Last night I wrote "I think we could hit the lower BB (which coincidentally is also a support line) on Thursday."  The trans spiked under the BB and support, and even through the 200 day MA but recovered enough by the end of the day to form a  nice hammer.  With indicators now well oversold and a stochastic starting to curve around, I'd say the selling is just about over here.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      5      6       4           4       0.600    677

     And the winner is...

I'm seeing some definite signs of a reversal on the charts tonight.  I have two choices at this point.  If I'm going to be conservative, I'd just call Friday uncertain but hey what the heck, let's go for it - I throw all caution to the wind and call Friday higher.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

Last night I wrote "
I think the selling's not done here yet."  And it wasn't as VZ continued lower under its 200 day MA on an inverted hammer.  This might be a reversal but I'm not so sure.  I'd need to see it first.  It's still not a buy in my book.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Due to some people who just won't honor my request not to post spam on my blog, I have had to re-enable comment moderation. Comments may take up to 24 hour to appear, depending on when they're made. Sorry about that.