Monday, March 16, 2015

Monday depends on ES pivot

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Monday higher only if ES breaks above it pivot, else lower.
  • ES pivot 2052.83.  Holding below is bearish.
  • Resr of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • Single stock trader: VZ past the 50% point of the current move.

Well my call for Friday higher was just flat out wrong.  The Dow went nowhere but down and that was that despite a late afternoon rally that still gave us a triple digit loss.  So we pick up the pieces and move on to Monday for what promises to be another fun-filled week complete with Fed follies and triple-witching.

The technicals

The Dow: The Dow on Friday gave up half of Thursday's gains, unable to make any headway at all and ending up right back in its descending RTC.  That pretty much quashes what looked like a trend reversal as the stochastic is now threaded out.  Looks lower to me on Monday.

The VIX:  Similarly, the VIX which looked for all the world to me ready to move lower Friday instead went higher by 3.76%.  Though here, the indicators are still just only off overbought and look to have some downside momentum behind them so I'm not sure this inverted hammer means a move higher on Monday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12: AM EDT with ES up 0.11%  ES fared even worse than the Dow on Friday, retracing all of Thursday's gains before recovering maybe 1/3 to remain in a descending RTC that's now back to the beginning of March.  Interestingly, the overnight pin action so far is forming a nice hammer, so there may yet be some hope here for Monday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2056.25 to 2052.83. We're now below the new pivot, though not by much, so this indicator becomes bearish.

Dollar index:  Once again, the dollar just kept on steaming higher, up another 0.89% Friday.  I've given up saying how long it's been because it's right off the historical extent of what eSignal will serve up.  I hear it's like 12 years now.  Bottom line, there's still no end in sight.

Euro:  And of course similarly, the euro kept right on track on Friday for its appointment in Parityville, closing this time at 1.0472. its lowest level since the late Middle Ages.  My call for parity by the end of March remains on track - the station is just coming into view in the distance with less than five cents to go.

Transportation:  The trans looked particularly weak on Friday with a dark cloud cover for a 0.67% loss.  Though we're not yet overbought,this doesn't look good for Monday.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183

March      3      4       1           2       0.556    471

     And the winner is...

The charts aren't looking too hot tonight but it's also Sunday night - the toughest call of the week.  And we're entering a triple-witching week.  And we've got a Fed announcement that will be even more closely watched than usual, all of which points to a tough week for forecasting.  I expect  some meandering ahead of the Fed followed by enhanced news-driven and op-ex volatility afterwards.  Should be interesting to say the least.

In the meantime, conditions look promising for another conditional call given the general uncertainty and the proximity of ES to its pivot.  So if ES can manage to break above its new pivot by mid-morning Monday we'll close higher.  If not, we close lower.  And that's that, Jack.

Single Stock Trader

Bah - I pulled the plug on the current trade Friday at 47.92 and then watched VZ keep moving higher.  Oh well - I didn't want to be long over the weekend on a down Friday.  We still took home a decent profit of 64 cents for two days work.  While it doesn't look bearish right now, I wouldn't be getting on board here - I think the majority of the current move up is done.

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