Thursday, August 6, 2015

Thursday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Thursday lower.
  • ES pivot 2094.33.  Holding below is bearish.
  • Friday bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

My conditional call last night for Wednesday was close but no cigar as the Dow finished off all of 10 points, dragged down entirely by Disney.  I will point out that both the SPX and Nasdaq did finish higher.  The market is a game of odds and not every bet is a winner.  So with that deep philosophy out of the way, let's trudge on to Thursday and see where the charts are pointing.

The technicals

The Dow:  Well purely on technicals, on Wednesday the Dow put in a long-legged spinning top accompanied by a  bearish stochastic crossover to remain in a steep descending RTC.  And that mostly looks continued bearish.

The VIX:  On Wednesday the VIX dropped nearly 4% but on a green hammer with oversold indicators and a fresh bullish stochastic crossover. It looks like it's ready for a move higher from here.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:19 AM EDT with ES down 0.08 %.  On Wednesday ES managed to put in a bullish engulfing pattern but on an inverted hammer.  The developing candle is moving the indicators lower off overbought and the stochastic is clearly falling so with a continuing failure to put in new higher daily highs, this chart looks lower again on Thursday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2086.92 to 2094.33. And that was enough to put ES back below its new pivot so this indicators is now bearish.

Dollar index:  The dollar continued bouncing around on Wednesday with a small gain but on an inverted hammer that nearly touched the upper BB.  Indicators are now overbought and the stochastic is in position for a bearish crossover so this chart now looks lower to me.

Euro:  The euro has also been getting jerked around lately and finished Wednesday with a perfect doji star at 1.0901.  The overnight seems to be confirming that and with indicators now oversold and the stochastic primed for a bullish crossover I'd say the next move looks likely higher.

Transportation:  The trans broke out of week-long consolidation on Wednesday but on a tall inverted hammer that touched their upper BB.  Indicators are now highly overbought and this move gave us a new bearish stochastic crossover so this one looks ready to move lower.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183

March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212

August     2      1       0           0       0.667    140

     And the winner is...

I'm afraid I just don't see any bullish signs on the charts tonight so the only logical call is for Thursday lower.

Single Stock Trader

VZ only lost a few cents on Wednesday but the trend is now clearly lower with a freshly completed bearish stochastic crossover.  Still no buy here.

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