Friday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday lower.
• ES pivot 2074.67.  Holding below is bearish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy

Recap

Last night's conditional call for Thursday worked as expected. ES made a brief and fruitless attempt to break above its pivot just after 3 AM but it was all downhill from there as it closed on session lows. And as a result the rest of the market closed lower too. Tonight once again we're going to have another Night Owl Lite because that annoying thing called Real Life (TM) interfered with my favorite hobby and I didn't have enough time to prepare the usual post. But we should still have some sort of idea of where Friday is headed.

The technicals

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot dives from 2074.67 to 2052.50.  .ES remains well beneath its new pivot so this indicator continues bearish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  7      4       8           1       0.667   1404
October    7      7       5           1       0.533    538
November   1      4       2           2       0.429   -397
     And the winner is...

On Thursday the Dow and the SPX both ominously fell through their respective 200 day MA's. The VIX also jumped right through its own 200 day MA in the other direction. None of that is any good for the market. And to make matters worse, right now oil seems to be in the driver's seat again as it seems intent on retesting the August lows. There are certainly no bullish signs on that chart. Or any other chart that I can see tonight. So I guess I'll just have to call Friday lower. I'll be happy to be proven wrong. That's all she barely managed to write. See you again Sunday night!


Single Stock Trader

Last night I called Verizon a speculative buy on the basis of a hammer followed by a rising spinning top, its first in quite a while. But on Thursday VZ got caught up in the general downtrend and fell another percent. That cancels everything nice I had to say about it last night and leaves the indicators wandering around at highly oversold levels. With a new red marubozu on the books the current pattern looks more like a bearish evening star than a bullish morning star. We also fell right back into that descending RTC so this stock is no longer any kind of a buy and if anything looks more like a short.