Thursday, January 14, 2016

Thursday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Thursday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 1902.00.  Holding below is bearish.
  • Friday bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • YM Futures Trader: still long at 16,434.
OK, I have to admit, I'm astonished at Wednesday's big 365 point dump in the Dow.  I went back and looked at the charts again and for the life of me I don't see anything I could have called different.  This was the ideal setup and perfect patterns for a rally higher, and yet we went lower - a lot lower.  The continuing failure of the bulls to make any headway coming up on the middle of January is starting to become a concern.  And this breakdown in the technicals, on a scale I haven't seen in 10 years is sending me to the sidelines.  I'm not even going to bother analyzing this tonight because what went on on Wednesday defies analysis.  So there will be no chart run-down tonight.  I'm reverting to wait & see mode until some measure of sanity returns to the market.
The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:17 AM EST with ES up 0.19%.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 1921.42 to 1902.00. That still leaves ES below its new pivot so this indicator flips right back to bearish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    4      3       1           0       0.571    439

     And the winner is...

I am concerned about the complete failure of the technicals on Wednesday, and oddly enough tonight we find ourselves in pretty much the same place, with a small drift higher in the futures.  So I'm not touching this one: Thursday uncertain it is.

YM Futures Trader

Still long at 16,434.  I'm going to wait this one out.  The Dow can't keep going down forever.

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