Friday, February 19, 2016

Friday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Friday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 1910.75.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Next week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • YM futures trader: no trade..  .

Villars-vintage-swiss-ski-travel-poster-repro-12x18 While the market actually was higher a fair amount of time on Thursday, a late afternoon sell-off torpedoed my call for a higher close though the damage was limited to just a 40 point frop in the Dow.  Tonight we're doing another Night Owl Lite.  I had a bunch of unrelated Real Life (TM) stuff going on and wasn't able to spend my usual amount of time on the markets.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:17 AM EST with ES up 0.13%.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 1910.75 to 1920.42.  That leaves ES below its new pivot for a change, though it's making a strong comeback in the overnight as I write.  It's bearish for now, but that might change pretty soon.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433

February   6      2       3           2       0.800     645

     And the winner is...

Tonight we're at something of a crossroads.  The VIX was down on a day the rest of the market was down too, an unusual situation.  The Dow hit its upper BB and ended with a bearish dark cloud cover.  ES also put in a dark cloud cover but is actually higher in the overnight and mounting an attack on the pivot.  This is all perhaps indicative of an upcoming options expiration so I'll just have to leave it at that and call Friday uncertain.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight - I had no time today to look for decent entries.

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