Wednesday, September 14, 2016

Wednesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Wednesday higher.
  • ES pivot 2135.08.  Holding below is bearish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • YM futures trader: short at 17,670.

Wow - I'm sure glad I called Tuesday as "uncertain" even in the face of decidedly bullish looking charts because Mr. Market clearly had other ideas, with every stock in the Dow save Apple falling faster than the 101st Airborne jumping over Normandy on D-Day.  And I apologize for forgetting to update the call in the topline summary.  I really did call it uncertain as you can see from the end of last night's post.

So just what was this all about?  Who the heck knows.  I heard all sorts of explanations ranging from poor bond sales to more Feditis. I think the best take-away is that support at the 18K Dow level held.  Even session lows did not break that level

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:26 AM EDT with ES up 0.18%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2142.75 to 2135.08.  That still leaves ES below its new pivot so this indicator is now bearish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416

May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393
July       5      6       6           2       0.539    -304
August     1      3       8           0       0.250     120

September  1      0       1           0       1.000      18

     And the winner is...

In just one day we went from a bullish piercing pattern to a bearish harami.  Is this one going to be any more accurate?  As they say in Scotland, Ee ha me doots.  Mr. Market is once again off his meds as sometimes happens, and when that happens the results aren't pretty.

Tonight we have basically the mirror image of last night - all the charts look bearish candlestick-wise, but the futures are now guiding higher by about the same amount they were looking lower last night.  So it may sound crazy, though in this market that may be the sane thing, and I'm going to go with the schizophrenia theme and call Wednesday higher.  See you i the Funny Farm!

Oh and like Columbo says, just one more thing.  I'd load up on puts for anything you care about because if the Fed joins the insanity and does raise rates next week, it's going to be lookout below!

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

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