Tuesday, January 10, 2017

Tuesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Tuesday lower.
  • ES pivot 2267.92.  Holding below is bearish..
  • Rest of week bias lower technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • YM futures trader: no trade tonight.

Sigh - last Thursday I said the market would go lower on Friday, so it went higher.  And last night I said it would go higher on Monday, so naturally it went lower.  Doh!  Sometimes you just can't win. Basically, the Dow is now clearly congesting just below the 20K mark in one of its trendless alternating up and down day modes.  This is not conducive to neat technical predictions, but what the heck, we'll give it a go anyway and see where Tuesday is headed.

The technicals

The VIX:  Last night I noted that I was "looking for a move higher soon here".  I wasn't sure it would come on Monday but it did, with the VIX up 2.12%.  It was basically an inverted hammer but the VIX is now very close to oversold and the stochastic is on the verge of a bullish crossover.  It sure looks like it has more upside potential than downside risk right now.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:24 AM EST with ES down 0.20%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot dips from from 2268.92 to 2267.92.  That now leaves ES below its new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    2      2       1           0       0.500     38

     And the winner is...

What a difference a day makes.  What was looking last night like a decent setup for a move higher turned out to be a false alarm.  With the VIX now appearing to have begun its turnaround and the futures all moving non-trivially lower in the new overnight, it's looking like dreams of Dow 20K are off the table for the time being.  I may live to regret it but I'm going to just go ahead and call Tuesday lower.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

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