Thursday, February 18, 2010

Dow Forecast for 2/18

The Dow finally managed to put together two consecutive winning sessions for the first time in the last eight today (2/17). Will this mini-streak continue tomorrow? I have my doubts.

Looking at the daily chart, today's close, 10309, was right at a short-term resistance point established on 2/2 and 2/3. It also marked exactly a 50% retracement from the January highs to the early February lows. In addition, volume declined today from yesterday, and momentum has turned downward. Both the CCI and stochastic are at overbought levels, though the RSI is not yet. Getting above this level may be tough.

Also, the Asian markets closed mostly lower and the US futures are currently (1:40 AM) running lower too. Overall, I expect tomorrow to be a transition day ending slightly lower. I'm looking to see the day end with a doji candle. Longer term, I'm looking for the market to make a third try to get back above the 10310 level sometime in the next month, and that time it will be successful.

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