Monday, April 19, 2010

ES Forecast for 4/19/10

"May you live in interesting times"

- Ancient Chinese curse

Well last Friday's action was certainly interesting, with the SEC on the one hand taking on Goldman, to what should have been the surprise of absolutely no one, and that volcano in Iceland spewing more ash than its name has vowels.

As I write this (1:25 AM EDT), I note that the ES is now down to 1185, down 5 points from the last close. I'm a bit surprised to see this, since looking at the SPX daily charts, we note that more often than not in the last six months, we've not seen a big down day followed immediately by further significant decline.

In any event, we're now near the 20 day MA in ES at 1180.50. If I had to guess, I'd say we could see a decline to that point early on tomorrow and then a bounce. If we go right down through that level, I'll consider going short. But note that there is a support level right around where we are now extending back to the beginning of April. The crystal ball just isn't all that clear tonight.

Recent trades:
I took advantage of the sale on Friday to open small long positions in SLV at 17.38 and RFMD at 5.37. I'll consider adding to them tomorrow. In the meantime, I'm encouraged that my IRBT did not participate in the general chaos on Friday. I'm still waiting on that one to produce.

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