Tuesday, May 4, 2010

Dow Forecast for 5/4/10

It's important to acknowledge your mistakes, but it's also not a bad thing to recognize when you're right, and I called the last two days correctly.

I guess I ought to take my own advice sometimes :-) As I forecast last Friday, the market was indeed up on Monday. Expecting the market to go lower today, I took the opportunity yesterday to sell my holdings in NCZ at 9.87 (closed today at 9.52). That brought me to 44% in cash, the highest level I've had all year, and going back most of last year too. It's even a bigger fraction of my trading balance, since my portfolio includes a core of dividend payers that are in solid profit positions that I don't intend to sell (GE, MO, VZ).

Today, Wall St. held a sale so I bought some more DRYS at 5.77 and AA at 12.59. Both have been beaten down mercilessly and look quite oversold on the daily and weekly indicators. I just bought 100 shares each in case I'm wrong and the slide continues tomorrow.

However, at this juncture I'm expecting the Dow to close higher tomorrow if for no other reason than the fact that sell-offs of this magnitude on old news (the Greeks are lousy money managers, oh my) generally are followed by at least a dead cat bounce. After that, we'll see what's what.

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