Late Night Update

At this time (1:20 AM), all three futures are lower by non-trivial amounts, the ES having dropped 10 points since the close. The euro has resumed its march lower, as analysts start dissecting the flaws in the GARP (the Greek TARP). Asia seems to be mainly higher.

Though I'm still looking for lower tomorrow, the line in the sand for the Dow is 10,700. If that fails to hold, the next two stops are 10,670 (the lower daily regression trend channel) and then 10,600 (the 50% retracement of yesterday's gains). The latter level is not out of the question and would be consistent with my "bar 4" call in my previous post. If 10,700 does hold, we may just see more consolidation around the current levels. I'm not expecting a major breakdown though.

These are the hardest calls, when everything is sort of in the middle: the market is in the middle of its Bollinger bands, the A/D line is pretty even, and the indices are neither extremely overbought or oversold. I do have a limit buy order in for SDS at a level under today's close, as potential insurance for my longs. We'll see if it triggers tomorrow.