With today's anemic action, holiday impaired or not, the Dow moved closer to the lower RTC line of the current daily uptrend. A down day tomorrow (which is looking likely right now based on the ES futures, currently down 775, or more than they've been down at this hour of the night in a long while) will generate an RTC sell setup. We only need to lose 40 Dow points to enter such a setup.
Then Wednesday will either confirm or reject this setup. I'm still not going short, but I'm starting to think that there's more risk than reward in this market, at least from the swing trader's perspective.
Also, note how the past week's action looks a lot like back in mid-April on the weekly chart, where we just couldn't get past the 200 week MA and then came back down. The indicators on the weekly chart (RSI, stochastic and money flow) are all looking pretty overbought right now. And if that's not enough, note that the dollar index has finally stopped falling over the last two days. All bearish.
The thing about the RTC is that it won't call the top but it's pretty good about identifying the end of a trend. That could possibly happen in the next two days.
Today I sold 200 SPIL (Siliconware Precision) at 5.36 and bought 100 JRO (Nuveen Floating Rate Income Opportunity Fund) at 11.67.
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