Thursday, October 21, 2010

Still rising...

I am just tickled pink with the performance of the regression trend channel technique. Since I learned about it this spring, it has become my analytical tool of choice. Yesterday it foretold of a continued rise in the market and today that's just what we got. Just look at the daily Dow to see how well this works.
Look back down the rising RTC channel from today to its start back in August.

Notice how in at least four different spots the curve flattens out and just looking at the candlesticks you might be tempted to call a top. But looking at the trend lines of the RTC, you can see that it wasn't in the cards. Today's small rise keeps us near the centerline of the channel and affirms a continuation of the uptrend. In fact, the traditional indicators (stochastic, RSI, momentum, and money flow) in the lower panels have come off their oversold levels lending additional support to the bullish thesis.

I made no trades today. I am now 50% in cash, though that is a function of some bonds maturing recently. Modulo those, I'd be fully invested according to my strategy earlier this year. The "high yield" section of my portfolio continues to do quite nicely. I'm in AOD, CIM, RSO, NRF, and SPIL.

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