The 8 Ball Says: Future Uncertain

Hmm - although the next three trading days in April are historically strong, I have my doubts about tomorrow.  On Friday, the Dow tried to crack the February high at 12,419 and was rejected.  As we've seen before, it often takes more than one try (and very often it takes three tries) to crack these kinds of resistance levels.  Also, the VIX closed at 17.4 on Friday and actually put in a green candle after bouncing off its support at 16.4.  And all three futures are lower right now (1:20 AM EDT), though not by much.  And more to the point, they're not really trending lower.  They're more sort of meandering about the chart.  And with no economic news coming out tomorrow, we won't have that to set the tone for the day.

So all in all, we're not getting any real strong signals in either direction which makes calling tomorrow somewhat problematic.  My best guess, and this is only a guess, is that we'll take another shot at the February highs and it will be rejected again.  But I'm not looking for any large moves tomorrow, either positive or negative.  In fact, we may be in for a few days of consolidation around these levels before the next push higher.  Nevertheless, the green swing trend arrow remains in place.

The key, as it is so often, will be the daily pivot.  On Friday it stood at 12,340.   We closed at 12,376.  Watch these two levels early tomorrow.  A break below the pivot will signal a lower close and vice-versa.

One item I did find interesting - on Friday afternoon, the bears did not knock 'em down into the close as  has been happening the past few days.  This is particularly interesting since one would expect the day traders to head for the exits before the weekend.  I'd call that something of a bullish sign.

BTW, how about my call last Thursday for Friday?  No April Fool's there - when you're right, you're right.