Crossroads again

Yesterday I had the feeling the Dow could go lower today and that's just what it did, giving up all of its intraday gains and then a bit more to close down just over 6 points.  In doing so it formed a doji, indicating indecision in the markets.  How will this resolve?  There's not much guidance from the VIX which continues to bump along the bottom at its support level around 17.  It formed a hanging man looking candle today but with so little trending going on there I don't really read anything into that.

I think that tonight we have three clues.

Clue 1: the futures, which are all higher by 0.2% to 0.3% at 1 AM.  We see that the ES in particular crossed over its daily pivot just before midnight and has been holding above it since then.

Clue 2:  the Dow closed today at 12,393 which means that what had been the February resistance is becoming support.

Clue 3: Indicators.  Although the stochastic and RSI remain broken in overbought territory, momentum and money flow have come down considerably off their recent highs.  Momentum has in fact turned positive and money flow has sunken to levels that suggest a bullish bias.

So that leaves us at sort of a crossroads.  The Dow doji suggests we could go either way tomorrow.  There are several indications that we might go higher but I don't see all that much gas in the tank to propel the move right now.  On the other hand, we have support after a fashion to block any moves lower.  So it's another tough call.  My bias says we're going higher, at least a little tomorrow, but I don't have much confidence in saying that.

Trades

Today I sold 100 shares of AOD out of the low price high yield portfolio, mostly for rebalancing, though AOD does seem to be a bit on the overbought side at the moment.  I then bought some MGN, Mines Management Inc., a silver play, at 2.96.   It closed today at 3.17.  Silver is just on fire and showing no signs of slowing down.  I've had a bunch of SLV in my IRA for years now and it has been the best performer in that portfolio.

I'm liking silver better than gold right now because it has attracted less attention.  I think it still has considerable upside.  You might want to check out this article http://seekingalpha.com/article/261413-jim-cramer-and-london-financial-times-now-touting-physical-silver?source=email_cramers_picks from Seeking Alpha recently making a strong case for the metal.