Wednesday, April 20, 2011

Confused and confusing

Well, Sunday night I thought the market would be up Monday.  It went down.  Last night I thought it would be down today, so naturally it went up.  At this point I will state right up front, while I still have any hair left that I haven't yet pulled out, that I do not understand what the market is doing right now.  It just gets into that state sometimes.

There's no guidance at all from the VIX tonight, which fell right back into its recent consolidation range.  And I just don't know what to make of the recent up down up down in the Dow.  About the only indicator we have for tomorrow comes from the futures, with the ES, NQ, and YM being up by a healthy 0.55%, 0.69% and 0.34% respectively at 12:40 AM EDT.  The ES has recovered nearly all of its S&P induced losses from Monday and its RSI and stochastic look bullish.

Unfortunately, I was away from my desk with other commitments today and wasn't able to spend as much time watching the market as I usually do, so my best guess, and at this point it's only a guess, is that we may be going higher tomorrow, mostly based on the futures and the VIX.  We'll see.

No trades today.

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