Testing resistance - third time the charm?

Yesterday I took a wild guess that we'd be up today on the strength of the overnight futures. Turns out it was a pretty good guess with the Dow advancing a big 187 points. This was significant because today's close at 12,453 puts us right back to the 12,450 resistance level that has bedeviled the market all year with 13 failed attempts to breach it so far. But today's high of 12,475 was the highest we've hit yet.

Can we move higher tomorrow or will this attempt fail like all the others? I actually think we might have a shot at it, because unlike the other times, this time the indicators are not all in significantly overbought territory. Even with today's big gain, the indicators are now actually just coming out of oversold status. And it also took us convincingly out of the descending regression trend channel going back to April 8th.

But I'm putting up the daily ES chart today since at this hour (1 AM EDT) we have a new candle forming, and it's green, with ES now up a very decent 0.43% in the overnight. YM is up too and NQ is up nearly one percent. I've noticed that often resistance levels take three tries to penetrate and if we count February as number one, the beginning of this month as number two, then we're now going after this level for the third time.  And we now have to wonder if the third time will be the charm.

Meanwhile the VIX actually broke under its strong long term support intraday today, though it did close at 15.07 on a gap down green candle. Right now, the futures seem to be saying that the VIX is unlikely to recover this level tomorrow.

Meanwhile oil actually went back up today over $111, a fact that the market totally ignored. All of this seems to be pointing to higher prices for stocks again tomorrow.  We'll see.