Thursday, April 28, 2011

Further gains possible tomorrow

Well the market certainly reacted positively to all the Fed hoopla today with a nice 96 point gain in the Dow.  And right now (12:45 AM EDT) it's looking like there may be still more upside to go tomorrow.  The last two days of April are historically strong and all three futures are up by 0.12% to 0.3%.

Additionally, the Dow has now put in two strong green candles taking us convincingly up over the 12,450 resistance (now support) level.  The further we get from that point, the weaker its attraction becomes.  Today's close at 12,691 also puts us squarely back in the center of the rising regression trend channel going all the way back to last July.  And there is now no resistance until the psychological 13,000 level last visited almost exactly three years ago in 2008.

Meanwhile, the VIX is now trading in a new range of 15 to 16.  With its former support around 16 now resistance, the VIX may have some trouble going higher from here.  And with the market once again ignoring the price of oil which has resumed its speculation-driven march upwards, it looks like the headwinds I feared earlier this week have pretty much subsided.

The only negative in the picture right now is that the Dow indicators are all in overbought territory.  However, as we've seen so often in this rally that began last July, the indicators can often show overbought and then just remain that way for days on end.  So my best guess is that we're in for a higher close tomorrow, and most likely Friday too.

Trades

I bought some Lowe's (LOW) yesterday at 26.38; it closed today at 26.74.  I also bought a bit more MFA, ZTR, and HIMX for my Low Price/High Yield portfolio.

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