More gains possible Friday

Well the indecision reflected in yesterday's doji was resolved today in no uncertain terms with an awesome 152 point gain in the Dow on increased volume.  I clearly erred by taking my XIV play off the table yesterday.  Today it gained more than I realized the day before.  Oh well.

I guess I let my thinking be influenced by the previous run of short rallies we had back in May and early June where they'd get cut short just when things started looking good.  I'm still net long, so I did make some decent money today.  I bought a bit of Ford (F) at 13.23 this afternoon; it ended at 13.33.  We'll see how far I can drive this one.

Anyway, today's rally brought us to 12,724 which happens to be a resistance level from earlier this month.  If we can clear that, then the next stop is the upper Bollinger band at 12,879 and then the 12,990 region representing the YTD high at the start of May.  So there's some decent room to run between today's close and the next resistance.  Can we get there?

The ES futures tonight would seem to suggest so.  All three market futures are up nearly a quarter percent at 1:40 AM EDT.  ES at 1346 is now well above its daily pivot of 1333.67 and it has no resistance until 1353.  It's beginning to show overbought on RSI, but that always seems to cut in early.  There's no topping sign from either momentum, money flow, or the short stochastic just yet.

Finally, the VIX sliced down through its 200 day MA today like buttah and its indicators are still not at oversold levels.  The most recent two times this happened, it went lower still the next day.  And it's still only in the middle of its Bollinger bands.  Since I'm out of my XIV trade, I'm now going to wait for the VIX to bottom, then I'll take a TVIX position.  That should be sometime early next week.

But until then, I'm keeping my long hat on.  J-Trader's system is also holding long tonight and it's been turning in quite a stellar performance lately.