Monday, August 8, 2011

Looking bad for Monday, very bad

Well it's 1:17 AM on Wall St. Do you know where your money is? I know where mine is. Down the toilet is where it is. ES futures opened for trading on Sunday evening with a gap down that's usually reserved for events like the outbreak of a world war, a giant asteroid heading for Earth, or Martians landing on Wall St.

I generally like to look back in the past for historical precedents for clues as to how the market may move the next day. But there has never been a situation like this. I have no idea what's going to happen. About all I'm willing to guess is that we're going to see some wild swings over the course of the day. Normally ES trading is pretty sleepy on a Sunday evening. Tonight, it was bouncing around like a Piper Cub in a thunderstorm, up and down as much as a point in mere seconds.
Weekly E
Just look at this chart.

This is the weekly ES chart because when I put up the daily chart, I couldn't find any support going all the way back across it. Here we can see that we've fallen clear back down to a support shelf beck from December of last year, well before the current contract began active trading.

Words fail me. I've never seen anything like this. This is worse than the fall of 2008. And it's puzzling too because a credit downgrade from S&P from AAA to AA+ doesn't really seem to be in the same league of disaster as the collapse of Lehman Bros.

It sure looks like the little devil on my shoulder from yesterday, the one predicting impending doom, is having the last laugh. Right now all three market futures are trading down an incredible 2.5%. And this coming after last week's exponential collapse. The only good thing here is that Monday's action may provide the washout low we need to start crawling back from the abyss.

But I'm afraid there's not even much to cheer there.  From the looks of it, tomorrow the SPX is going to cross under its 200 week moving average.  And that will be as bad as when we crossed under the 200 day MA.  Amazingly, that was just three sessions ago.  If the 1170 ES level gives way, we're in for even more losses, as amazing as that may sound.

One thing's for sure - tomorrow's going to be a day to remember.  Fasten your seat belts...

No comments:

Post a Comment

Due to some people who just won't honor my request not to post spam on my blog, I have had to re-enable comment moderation. Comments may take up to 24 hour to appear, depending on when they're made. Sorry about that.