Wednesday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday uncertain.
  
• ES pivot 1695.25.  Holding above is bullish.  Now following Z contract.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• ES Fantasy Trader remaining short at 1695.50.

Recap

Hmmm - curious.  It was sure looking to me like Tuesday was going lower.  I don't know if this was a failure of technical analysis or just of my analysis.  At least one reader has suggested that there's a bunch of short covering going on.  Well that was then, this is now.  And tonight we're going to forgo the chart by chart rundown because I always call Fed days uncertain anyway.  But this particular Fed day is going to be watched especially closely as Mr. Market waits to see it we get the taper, the taper-lite, or the same old same old.

The technicals (daily)

Of course I still did look over the charts and I have to say they now look fairly bullish, with the one exception of the VIX which may be about to break over its 200 day MA.

Sentiment: Once again it's time for the latest weekly TickerSense Blogger Sentiment Poll.  We continue to track the poll to see how well it performs.

Wk.# Week   % Bullish  % Bearish  NightOwl Poll SPX  Accuracy Poll

  1  12/31      40         48        -      -   1402   0/1

  2  1/7        47         30        +      +   1466   1/2

  3  1/14       52         15        +      +   1472   2/3

  4  1/22       50         21        +      +   1486   3/4

  5  1/28       44         26        +      +   1503   4/5

  6  2/5        40         36        +      +   1513   5/6

  7  2/11       43         25        +      +   1518   6/7

  8  2/19       21         43        -      -   1520   6/8

  9  2/25       30         52        -      -   1516   6/9

 10  3/4        29         39        -      -   1518   6/10

 11  3/11       41         26        +      +   1551   7/11

 12  3/18       41         37        +      +   1561   8/12

 13  3/25       31         38        +      -   1557   8/13    9/13

 14  4/1        38         38        +      x   1569   9/14    9/13

 15  4/8        32         50        -      -   1553   9/15    9/14

 16  4/15       33         50        +      -   1589   10/16   9/15

 17  4/22       19         63        -      -   1555   10/17   9/16

 18  4/29       33         58        -      -   1582   10/18   9/17

 19  5/6        50         31        +      +   1614   11/19  10/18

 20  5/13       37         37        +      x   1634   12/20  10/18

 21  5/20       50         25        +      +   1667   12/21  10/19

 22  5/28       37         33        +      +   1650   12/22  10/20

 23  6/3        29         38        -      -   1631   13/23  11/21

 24  6/10       38         38        +      x   1643   13/24  11/21

 25  6/17       32         40        +      -   1627   14/25  11/22

 26  6/24       13         46        -      -   1592   14/26  11/23

 27  7/1        25         42        -      -   1606   14/27  11/24

 28  7/8        42         29        +      +   1632   15/28  12/25

 29  7/15       48         22        +      +   1680   16/29  13/26

 30  7/22       42         19        +      +   1692   16/30  13/27

 31  7/29       39         17        +      +   1692   16/31  13/28

 32  8/5        46         27        +      +   1710   16/32  13/29

 33  8/12       32         41        -      -   1691   17/33  14/30

 34  8/19       23         54        -      -   1656   17/34  14/31

 35  8/26       23         50        -      -   1664 

 36  9/3        21         54        -      -   1633

 37  9/9        35         30        +      +   1655

 38  9/16       40         28        +      +   1688

Again, the SPX number is the closing price of the S&P on the Friday before each new poll comes out.  The "NightOwl" column is how I voted.  The "Poll" column is how the majority of participants voted.  Since the poll is for 30 days out, after the first four weeks we're able to see how well we did.  This week we see that both I and the majority of the poll voted bearish four weeks ago, so this time we were both wrong.  Therefore we continue the year with an accuracy of 17  for 34, or 50%, back to coin-flipping.   The poll as a whole drops to 14 for 31 or 45% - it's been a tough year for the poll so far.

This week I remained with the majority in voting positive once again.  Bullish sentiment continues to rise for the third week in a row while bearish sentiment has been cut in half in the same time period.  As much as I can't ignore the fact that October is historically a dreadful month, so far I'm not seeing in on either the weekly or monthly SPX charts.  I guess we'll find out 30 days from now.

Accuracy (daily calls): 

Month     right wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    5      7      6           3        0.533   -101
February   3      4      5           6        0.692    131
March      5      7      5           2        0.500    121
April      7      5      5           3        0.667    328
May        3      4      6           4        0.636     85
June       6      5      6           0        0.545    543
July      10      2      4           4        0.875    486
August    11      3      6           2        0.813    687
September  5      2      1           1        0.750    279

     And the winner is...

There's no call tonight because I have no way to know what the Fed will announce and obviously that is what will move the markets.  So this is one of those times where you just put your feet up, grab a cold one, and do some spectating.  Bottom line - Wednesday uncertain.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats: the account remains at $108,500 after 15 trades (11 for 15  total, 6 for 6 longs, 5 for 9 short) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/13.  Tonight we remain short at 1695.50.  I knew it - I don't know what's wrong with me.  I feel like Charlie Brown with the football, and yet I still go after these shorts.  Well let's give it one more day - the market is still looking quite overbought and the current rally has been going on for quite a while already.