Friday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday higher, low confidence.
  
• ES pivot 1784.67.  Holding above is bullish..
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• ES Fantasy Trader standing aside

Recap

It looks like the market still had some gas left in the tank after all as the Dow gained 55 points on its way to another record close.  That just leaves an op-ex day to go for the week so let's see if there are any signs to Friday's action in the charts.



The technicals (daily)

The Dow: Thursdays's green marubozu brought the Dow to its upper BB.  It also went overbought and the stochastic is now close to forming a bearish crossover.  So there's a few warning signs but without a reversal candle I can't call this chart lower yet.

The VIX:  Last night I wrote "the VIX could run lower at least one more day" and indeed on Thursday it broke support at 12.50 and closed almost down to its lower BB.  But the indicators have yet to go oversold.  There's now some minor support st 12.30, then nothing til the August lows of 11.84..  So overall, with two black crows cawing away, I can't call this chart higher yet.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are higher at 12:29  AM EST with ES up by 0.14%.  ES traded higher on Thursday, actually closing above its upper BB.  That was enough to finally move it to overbought but the stochastic is still not interested in forming a bearish crossover and the overnight continues higher into record territory.  So despite the rarified atmosphere up here, I still can't call this one lower yet.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot rises from 1771.75  to 1784.67.  Once again we remain comfortably above the new pivot so this indicator remains bullish.

Dollar index: Last night I thought the dollar was moving lower and while it did put in a red candle on Thursday, it was a harami hammer so it was a higher close.  The trend is quite choppy but still vaguely lower, so that's what I'll claim for Friday here.

Euro: And sort of the same deal with the euro.  Although Thursday did move higher early on, it gave up those gains into the close for a red spinning top and a small loss.  The overnight is dead flat and the indicators are mixed so this one's too tough to call.

Transportation: The trans struck a slight note of caution Thursday, gaining 0.27% but on a small spinning top as an evening star after nearly touching their upper BB intraday.  But the indicators still aren't overbought and we remain solidly inside a steeply rising RTC so it's still too soon to call a top here.


Sentiment: Once again it's time for the latest weekly TickerSense Blogger Sentiment Poll.  We continue to track the poll to see how well it performs.

Wk.# Week   % Bullish  % Bearish  NightOwl Poll SPX  Accuracy Poll

  1  12/31      40         48        -      -   1402   0/1

  2  1/7        47         30        +      +   1466   1/2

  3  1/14       52         15        +      +   1472   2/3

  4  1/22       50         21        +      +   1486   3/4

  5  1/28       44         26        +      +   1503   4/5

  6  2/5        40         36        +      +   1513   5/6

  7  2/11       43         25        +      +   1518   6/7

  8  2/19       21         43        -      -   1520   6/8

  9  2/25       30         52        -      -   1516   6/9

 10  3/4        29         39        -      -   1518   6/10

 11  3/11       41         26        +      +   1551   7/11

 12  3/18       41         37        +      +   1561   8/12

 13  3/25       31         38        +      -   1557   8/13    9/13

 14  4/1        38         38        +      x   1569   9/14    9/13

 15  4/8        32         50        -      -   1553   9/15    9/14

 16  4/15       33         50        +      -   1589   10/16   9/15

 17  4/22       19         63        -      -   1555   10/17   9/16

 18  4/29       33         58        -      -   1582   10/18   9/17

 19  5/6        50         31        +      +   1614   11/19  10/18

 20  5/13       37         37        +      x   1634   12/20  10/18

 21  5/20       50         25        +      +   1667   12/21  10/19

 22  5/28       37         33        +      +   1650   12/22  10/20

 23  6/3        29         38        -      -   1631   13/23  11/21

 24  6/10       38         38        +      x   1643   13/24  11/21

 25  6/17       32         40        +      -   1627   14/25  11/22

 26  6/24       13         46        -      -   1592   14/26  11/23

 27  7/1        25         42        -      -   1606   14/27  11/24

 28  7/8        42         29        +      +   1632   15/28  12/25

 29  7/15       48         22        +      +   1680   16/29  13/26

 30  7/22       42         19        +      +   1692   16/30  13/27

 31  7/29       39         17        +      +   1692   16/31  13/28

 32  8/5        46         27        +      +   1710   16/32  13/29

 33  8/12       32         41        -      -   1691   17/33  14/30

 34  8/19       23         54        -      -   1656   17/34  14/31

 35  8/26       23         50        -      -   1664   17/35  14/32

 36  9/3        21         54        -      -   1633   17/36  14/33

 37  9/9        35         30        +      +   1655   18/37  15/34

 38  9/16       40         28        +      +   1688   19/38  16/35

 39 9/23        52         36        +      +   1710   20/39  17/36

 40 9/30        39         43        +      -   1692   21/40  17/37

 41 10/7        30         33        +      -   1691   22/41  17/38

 42 10/14       48         22        +      +   1703   23/42  18/39

 43 10/21       57         30        +      +   1745

 44 10/28       59         19        +      +   1760  

 45 11/4        42         25        +      +   1762

 46 11/11       39         39        +      x   1771

Again, the SPX number is the closing price of the S&P on the Friday before each new poll comes out.  The "NightOwl" column is how I voted.  The "Poll" column is how the majority of participants voted.  Since the poll is for 30 days out, after the first four weeks we're able to see how well we did.  This week we see that I voted bullish four weeks ago, along with the majority of the poll we were both right.  Therefore we continue the year with an accuracy of 23 for 42, or 55%.   The poll as a whole rises to 18 for 39 or 46% - it continues to be a tough year for the poll so far.

This week with falling bullish sentiment and rising bearish sentiment, the poll is in a dead tie at 39.13% each.  I however continued to vote bullish for the 10th week in a row.  This rally feels like it's getting long in the tooth but looking at the charts objectively I still don't see a top forming.  I guess we'll find out in 30 days.


Accuracy (daily calls):

Month     right wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
 
January    5      7      6           3        0.533   -101
February   3      4      5           6        0.692    131
March      5      7      5           2        0.500    121
April      7      5      5           3        0.667    328
May        3      4      6           4        0.636     85
June       6      5      6           0        0.545    543
July      10      2      4           4        0.875    486
August    11      3      6           2        0.813    687
September  8      3      3           3        0.800    485
October    7      5      8           2        0.643    674
November   4      4      1           0        0.500     95

     And the winner is...

November op-ex is historically pretty bullish and I'm not really seeing any bearish signs in the charts right now, so the logical call is for Friday higher.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats: the account remains at $110,625 after 17 trades (13 for 17  total, 7 for7 longs, 6 for 10 short) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/13.  Tonight we stand aside.again.