Tuesday, November 12, 2013

Tuesday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Tuesday higher, low confidence.
  • ES pivot 1766.83.  Holding above is bullish..
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • ES Fantasy Trader standing aside

Another yawner of a day, with low volume and the bond markets closed as we celebrate Veteran's Day and salute those who gave their lives to protect what is still the greatest nation on the planet.  It's also op-ex week once again, so we can expect the usual gyrations around that.  So with that in mind let's see where Tuesday's headed.

The technicals (daily)

The Dow: On Monday the Dow defied the emerging megaphone by breaking out above resistance at 15,763 for yet another record close.  The small candle doesn't qualify as a reversal warning and although we just went overbought, the upper BB is still 80 points away, so there's a least a little more room to run higher here.

The VIXAnd after an ill-fated attempt to break higher last week, the VIX instead broke below its recent trading range, giving up support at 12.70 on Monday.  And with VVIX similarly either uninterested or unable to get anything going, prospects for a move higher on Tuesday look dim.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are higher at 12:29 AM EST with ES up by a modest 0.08%.  Nevertheless, this is non-confirming Monday's doji.  It's also clearing resistance at 1767, and with indicators not yet overbought and the upper BB at 1780, this chart still looks bullish.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot rises exactly 10 from 1756.83  to 1766.83.  We remain just above the new pivot, so this indicator remains bullish.

Dollar index: The dollar moved lower Monday with no discernable pattern.  Ya got me, pal.  I've no clue where this one's headed..

Euro: On Monday, broke out of a descending RTC for a bullish setup that moved the indicators higher (though still oversold) and bounced off the lower BB.  This one looks higher for Tuesday (so maybe dollar lower?)

Transportation: Last night I wrote "this chart now looks mildly bullish", and the trans broke out of a descending RTC for a bullish setup on Monday with a decent 0.46% advance that moved the stochastic into position for a bullish crossover.  This chart now looks even more bullish.

Accuracy (daily calls): 

Month     right wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    5      7      6           3        0.533   -101
February   3      4      5           6        0.692    131
March      5      7      5           2        0.500    121
April      7      5      5           3        0.667    328
May        3      4      6           4        0.636     85
June       6      5      6           0        0.545    543
July      10      2      4           4        0.875    486
August    11      3      6           2        0.813    687
September  8      3      3           3        0.800    485
October    7      5      8           2        0.643    674

November   3      2      1           0        0.600    143

     And the winner is...

Gosh, the rarified atmosphere at these record levels makes me want to reach for the oxygen mask.  But all the forces in play last night still seem to be here tonight, so I guess I just have to once again call Tuesday higher.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats: the account remains at $110,625 after 17 trades (13 for 17  total, 7 for7 longs, 6 for 10 short) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/13.  Tonight we stand aside.again.

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