Monday, November 4, 2013

Monday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Monday higher, low confidence..
  • ES pivot 1754.33.  Holding above is bullish..
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • ES Fantasy Trader standing aside

I based my call for Friday going higher on whether ES broke above its pivot or not.  Since that didn't really happen I'm just going to count this as a miss.  Oh well - there's plenty of time to catch up.

The technicals (daily)

The Dow: Friday's candle was a bullish harami but with the indicators still overbought and no RTC to guide us, this chart is too tough to call for Monday.

The VIXThe VIX lost 3.42% on Friday but stayed inside its now two week trading range. The only guidance here is from the indicators which support continued downside Monday.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are higher at 12:30 AM EST with ES up by a respectable 0.21%.  We got a big star on Friday causing the indicators to reverse course before even reaching oversold.  The stochastic in particular is gearing up for a bullish crossover so this chart now looks bullish.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot dips from 1755.08  to 1754.33.  But we remain above the new pivot o that's bullish.

Dollar index: Wow - another big gap-up day for the dollar on Friday, this time gaining another 0.68% to just about hit its upper BB in a move that is now clearly going exponential.  With the indicators now highly overbought, I'm thinking that what goes up must come down.  This is definitely not the spot to go long the dollar..

Euro: And of course the euro is mirror-imaging the dollar, down big-time on Friday in a downward exponential that has driven the indicators to extremely oversold.  The overnight is close to the lower BB and forming a hammer.  From here I'd say a reversal has to be coming Real Soon Now.

Transportation: The trans outperformed the Dow on Friday, up 1.04% but still couldn't break past resistance at 7055.  We got a confirmation of Thursday's hammer but we also got a bearish RTC trigger.  However, the stochastic appears to be about to form a bullish crossover from a high level and those are often good for a day or two of further upside.  Overall though, this chart is too tough to call.

Accuracy (daily calls):

Month     right wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    5      7      6           3        0.533   -101
February   3      4      5           6        0.692    131
March      5      7      5           2        0.500    121
April      7      5      5           3        0.667    328
May        3      4      6           4        0.636     85
June       6      5      6           0        0.545    543
July      10      2      4           4        0.875    486
August    11      3      6           2        0.813    687
September  8      3      3           3        0.800    485
October    7      5      8           2        0.643    674

November   0      1      0           0        0.000      0

     And the winner is...

Hmm, there's an uncommon lot of ambiguity about the charts tonight.  But my thinking right now is primarily affected by the VIX, the futures, ad the NYSE A/D line which began moving off its lows on Friday.  So I'm going to go out on a limb and call Monday higher.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats: the account remains at $110,625 after 17 trades (13 for 17  total, 7 for7 longs, 6 for 10 short) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/13.  Tonight we stand aside.again.

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