Tuesday, November 5, 2013

Tuesday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Tuesday higher, low confidence..
  • ES pivot 1760.08.  Holding above is bullish..
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • ES Fantasy Trader standing aside

With little in the way of economic news out on Monday Mr. Market kind of took a nap, with the Dow ending all of 24 points higher on a low-range low-volume day.  By the time it was all over, I had made a grand total of $67 in my trading account.  Will things get a bit more exciting on Tuesday.  We send Mr. Market to Dr. von Chart to find out.

The technicals (daily)

The Dow: A small spinning top here indicates indecision but its position higher than Friday's harami suggests further upside.  This is supported by a stochastic about to form a bullish crossover from a high level.

The VIXMy comment here last night was "continued downside Monday" and that's just what we got, down another 2.64%.  That was enough to just barely crack support at 13 and with indicators continuing lower, I'd say the downward move isn't over yet.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are essentially flat at 12:54 AM EST with ES and NQ up just 0.01% and YM down by 0.01%.  Monday's nice green marubozu did confirm Friday's doji though and we now have a completed bullish stochastic crossover.  So it looks to me like ES wants to retest 1768.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot rises from 1754.33  to 1760.08.  We remain above the new pivot so this indicator remains bullish.

Dollar index: Last night I wrote "what goes up must come down". And sure enough, the dollar ended its four day exponential rally on Monday with a 0.21% loss on a bearish harami.  Indicators are still way overbought and the stochastic is about to form a bearish crossover so I'd say there's more downside to come.

Euro: And correspondingly the euro put an end to its inverted exponential waterfall on Monday with a nice little hammer.  There's no follow-through in the overnight though and we're still in a declining RTC so it's not clear that the euro can advance any from here on Tuesday.

Transportation: Last night I commented on a bullish stochastic crossover from a high level here but wouldn't commit to it.  Now I wish I had, because we jumped 1.16% on Monday to give us two white soldiers.  And it looks like they're busy recruiting a third for Tuesday.

Accuracy (daily calls):

Month     right wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    5      7      6           3        0.533   -101
February   3      4      5           6        0.692    131
March      5      7      5           2        0.500    121
April      7      5      5           3        0.667    328
May        3      4      6           4        0.636     85
June       6      5      6           0        0.545    543
July      10      2      4           4        0.875    486
August    11      3      6           2        0.813    687
September  8      3      3           3        0.800    485
October    7      5      8           2        0.643    674

November   1      1      0           0        0.500     24

     And the winner is...

The charts certainly aren't a screaming buy right now but the positive glimmers I saw last night are a bit stronger tonight so once again it looks like the logical call is for Tuesday higher.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats: the account remains at $110,625 after 17 trades (13 for 17  total, 7 for7 longs, 6 for 10 short) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/13.  Tonight we stand aside.again.

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