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- Tuesday higher, low confidence..
- ES pivot 1760.08. Holding above is bullish..
- Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
- Monthly outlook: bias higher.
- ES Fantasy Trader standing aside
With little in the way of economic news out on Monday Mr. Market kind of took a nap, with the Dow ending all of 24 points higher on a low-range low-volume day. By the time it was all over, I had made a grand total of $67 in my trading account. Will things get a bit more exciting on Tuesday. We send Mr. Market to Dr. von Chart to find out.
The technicals (daily)
The Dow: A small spinning top here indicates indecision but its position higher than Friday's harami suggests further upside. This is supported by a stochastic about to form a bullish crossover from a high level.
The VIX: My comment here last night was "continued downside Monday" and that's just what we got, down another 2.64%. That was enough to just barely crack support at 13 and with indicators continuing lower, I'd say the downward move isn't over yet.
Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are essentially flat at 12:54 AM EST with ES and NQ up just 0.01% and YM down by 0.01%. Monday's nice green marubozu did confirm Friday's doji though and we now have a completed bullish stochastic crossover. So it looks to me like ES wants to retest 1768.
ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot rises from 1754.33 to 1760.08. We remain above the new pivot so this indicator remains bullish.
Dollar index: Last night I wrote "what goes up must come down". And sure enough, the dollar ended its four day exponential rally on Monday with a 0.21% loss on a bearish harami. Indicators are still way overbought and the stochastic is about to form a bearish crossover so I'd say there's more downside to come.
Euro: And correspondingly the euro put an end to its inverted exponential waterfall on Monday with a nice little hammer. There's no follow-through in the overnight though and we're still in a declining RTC so it's not clear that the euro can advance any from here on Tuesday.
Transportation: Last night I commented on a bullish stochastic crossover from a high level here but wouldn't commit to it. Now I wish I had, because we jumped 1.16% on Monday to give us two white soldiers. And it looks like they're busy recruiting a third for Tuesday.
Accuracy (daily calls):
Month right wrong no call conditional batting Dow
January 5 7 6 3 0.533 -101
February 3 4 5 6 0.692 131
March 5 7 5 2 0.500 121
April 7 5 5 3 0.667 328
May 3 4 6 4 0.636 85
June 6 5 6 0 0.545 543
July 10 2 4 4 0.875 486
August 11 3 6 2 0.813 687
September 8 3 3 3 0.800 485
October 7 5 8 2 0.643 674
November 1 1 0 0 0.500 24
And the winner is...
The charts certainly aren't a screaming buy right now but the positive glimmers I saw last night are a bit stronger tonight so once again it looks like the logical call is for Tuesday higher.
ES Fantasy Trader
Portfolio stats: the account remains at $110,625 after 17 trades (13 for 17 total, 7 for7 longs, 6 for 10 short) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/13. Tonight we stand aside.again.