Friday, February 28, 2014

Friday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Friday higher, low confidence.
  • ES pivot 1847.50.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Next week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.

I'm glad I called Thursday as uncertain because there was really no way (that I could see) of figuring out which way the previous two doji days would resolve.  Turns out is was to the upside and that has interesting implications for Friday which will will get to with no further ado.

The technicals (daily)

The Dow: The Dow seems to be in stair-step mode now, with brief sideways moves followed by short pops higher.  With no bearish reversal signs in sight, the upper BB not til 16,467, and the indicators actually turning higher again, it looks like this pattern is set to continue for a while.

The VIXLast night I wrote "the VIX may want to take a peek at its 200 day MA again on Thursday at 14.64, this time as resistance", and that is just what happened on Thursday.  The VIX hit a high of 14.69 and that was basically the end of it, as it finished down just over 2%.  That keeps it in ts descending RTC and makes for a jim-dandy dark cloud cover.  With the MA rejected, lower again looks likely on Friday.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are lower at 12:41 AM EST with ES down by 0.13%.  ES had a pretty good day Thursday, breaking the 1850 mark as it pushes back into record territory again.  That was enough to drive the indicators overbought, but lately that's not an instant reversal sign.  The mode now seems to be for up days to be followed by consolidation, so that's not out of the question here.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot rises from 1844.42  to 1847.50.  We remain above the new pivot so this indicator is still bullish.

Dollar index: I couldn't make much sense of this chart last night and on Thursday the dollar pretty much just went back over the same ground, down 0.20% to end just under where it started Wednesday.  But that's still good for a bearish engulfing pattern and a stochastic that's moving close to a bearish crossover.  So I'll take a wild guess that the dollar goes lower on Friday..

Euro: On Thursday the euro gave us a green hammer that nonetheless drove the indicators closed to oversold.  But the overnight is falling again and is about to break under the new pivot.  But tonight it's this chart that's too hard to parse, so I'll take a pass here.

Transportation: he trans got back into gear on Thursday with a nice 0.59% gain to form a bullish engulfing pattern that just cracked the descending RTC for a bullish setup  Indicators remain somewhat of a mixed picture but overall this chart is at least somewhat bullish now.

Accuracy (daily calls):

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    5      10      6           0       0.333
February   4       2      2           1       0.714     58

     And the winner is...

The last day of the month is generally good, though in February it's just average.  In any case, tonight we have sort of the same thing as two nights ago, an absence of bearish signs more than anything looking strongly bullish.  So I guess all I can do is call Friday higher, though I'm not expecting any triple digit advances.  See you again Sunday night!

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats:  the account remains at $103,000 after the first trade of 2014.  We are now 1 for 1 total, 1 for 1 long, 0 for 0 short.  Tonight we stand aside.

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