Monday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday lower, medium confidence.
  
• ES pivot 1856.42.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.

Recap

I got my Friday call higher although it was in a bit of jeopardy on Ukrainian news last Friday afternoon as traders didn't want to be holding anything over the weekend.  And that's starting to look prudent as the Ukranian straymash seems to be degenerating rapidly.  Now I haven't mentioned it before but I have planted a secret bug in Vladimir Putin's office, so I can now reveal to the world his reaction when Obama told him that there would be "consequences" if he invaded the Ukraine.  This is what Comrade Putin had to say, and I quote "Boo wah hah hah hah hah hah! "  (The thump was presumably him falling out of his chair laughing).

Look, the Empty Suit just made a lot of noise about reducing our army to pre-WWII levels (and that's World War Two, not Eleven, for those of you who weren't there).  And he's all hot to get the US out of Iraq and Afghanistan (which is actually a good idea).  So what exactly is it that Putin is supposed to be afraid of?  I'll tell you what he's afraid of - he just saw his fellow Ukrainian friend buddy pal dictator/thug deposed via nothing more than a bunch of loud angry people parading around the town square.

The man is absolutely petrified that if this could happen there then he might be next.  And just like on Wall St. where fear always trumps greed, he's going to do everything he can to keep himself in power.  And if that involves a few tanks and troops, then so be it.  The notion that he's afraid of Obama is ludicrous.  The chickens are now coming home to the roosters and Obama's foreign policy might be summarized as "Speak softly and carry a wet noodle".  I wish him well, but having sown the wind, he is ready to reap the whirlwind.

Trader Feed is Back

And as a postscript, let me point out that it seems that Dr. Brett Steenbarger has resumed his awesome Trader Feed blog after a long absence (see link in my blog list).  I credit the good doctor for turning around my trading to consistent profitability, and I highly recommend this blog to all my readers.  This should be your number one read every day.  No excuses, just read it.

The technicals (daily)

Tonight we're just going to skip the technicals since I believe that Monday is going to be news-driven.


Accuracy (daily calls):

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    5      10      6           0       0.333     64
February   5       2      2           1       0.750    107

     And the winner is...

With the futures tanking in the Sunday evening trade, Mr. Market is clearly not liking what's going on in Ukraine where things seem to be going from bad to worse.  Barring some major unexpected announcement, like say Putin resigning (which doesn't seem likely), it's looking right now like we're going to close Monday lower.  But again, Monday will be a news-driven day and on such days, the technicals don't count for much.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats:  the account remains at $103,000 after the first trade of 2014.  We are now 1 for 1 total, 1 for 1 long, 0 for 0 short.  Tonight we stand aside.