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- Friday lower, low confidence.
- ES pivot 1979.00. Holding above is bullish.
- Next week bias lower technically.
- Monthly outlook: bias higher.
- ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.
Hmm - last night's conditional call worked - if you're going by the SPX. ES broke above the pivot at 4 AM Thursday and the SPX finished up 0.05%. Unfortunately, my benchmark is the Dow and a random dip in the closing minutes caused a three point loss on the day there. Oh well - it's still not a bad theory. So now we move on the Friday as we approach the end of July.
The Dow: The Dow remains in its summer doldrums, putting in a small spinning top on Thursday that means very little. If you squint real hard, you can sort of see a rising triangle going on. But honestly, yet again, there's not much meat to chew on here.
The VIX: And there's also little clarity in the VIX which gained 2.78% on Thursday, rejecting Wednesday's doji. At least here we do have something of a downtrend going and we remain inside this RTC. Remember the other day how I noted an 8-day pattern between bottoms here lately? Thursday was day 6. So in the absence of anything better, I think the VIX could still go lower for a day or two.
Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are lower at 12:24 AM EDT with ES down 0.08%. On Thursday ES gave us a perfect doji star that just touched its upper BB before backing off. The new overnight so far seems to be confirming that and the indicators seem to be waking up a bit, all having turned downwards simultaneously just shot of reaching overbought. We're also right on the edge of the rising RTC for a bearish setup, and the overall tenor of this chart is now leaning bearish.
ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot ticks up from 1979.00 to 1981.08. We've now dipped back below that so this indicator now turns bearish.
Dollar index: Last night I wrote "you just can't call this one lower yet" and it's a good thing too because eon Thursday the dollar continued to crawl up its upper BB, gaining 0.06% in the process. With three white soldiers and indicators broken at overbought, there's still nothing bearish about this chart.
Euro: The euro remains similarly undecided, putting in a nice star on Thursday centered about Wednesday' action. The lower trend remains lower but for the past two days we're just looking for a direction. The fact that we've finally peeled off the lower BB could be interpreted as bullish but that remains to be seen.
Transportation: And finally on Thursday the trans were similarly afflicted with nothing-itis, dropping a mere 0.02% on a small lopsided spinning top. We remain inside a decent rising RTC, indicators are just barely coming off overbought, so the net takeaway is only mildly bearish here..
And the winner is...
The market is still not really giving many good directional signals, but tonight I'm seeing just enough of a bearish edge, particularly in the VIX and the futures, to cautiously call Friday lower. That's all she wrote. See you again next Sunday night!
ES Fantasy Trader
Portfolio stats: the account remains at $113,000 after seven trades in 2014, starting with $100,000. We are now 5 for 7 total, 3 for 3 long, 2 for 3 short, and one push. Tonight we stand aside.