Tuesday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday uncertain.
• ES pivot 1965.58.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.

Recap

Very odd.  Last night I called Monday as uncertain and even after seeing how it turned out, we've gotten no further clarification.  Perhaps the nightly chart run-down will help.

The technicals

The Dow: The Dow now seems to be in down/up/down mode, where it changes direction daily as Monday marked the fourth day in a row where the market closed in the opposite direction from the day before.  But on Monday we got a hanging man.. Or since there's no trend running, something to that effect.  Indicators remain stalled below overbought.  There's just nothing here to grasp, perhaps reflecting the uncertainty going on in the world at the moment.

The VIX:  Huh - so much for Friday's bearish harami.  On Monday the VIX moved right back up again gaining 6%, but on a lopsided star implying yet more uncertainty.  Indicators here too are wavering between overbought and oversold.  So perhaps my technicals skills just aren't up to it, but I see nothing of predictive value on this chart right now.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are higher at 12:22 AM EDT with ES up 0.09%.  ES was unable to capitalize on Friday's big move and instead put in a hanging man on Monday.  That now gives us four days in a row of lower highs  This is just a low information content, lackluster chart.  Ugh.  If I had something more intelligent to say about it, I would have.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 1962.75 to 1965.58.  We remain above the new pivot so this indicator remains bullish.

Dollar index:  On Monday the dollar pretty much remained in a now four day consolidation area, gaining 0.04% but on a red candle.  Indicators remain highly overbought and with four dojis in a row now, I still have to think this one goes lower soon.

Euro: And the euro remained stuck in its own consolidation area with a spinning top too. We remain oversold so when the break comes my guess it is will be higher.  Until then, it's more sideways action ahead.

Transportation: Last night I wrote "we still have a strong resistance area around 8390" and the trans did not in fact have the gas in the tank to motor through that level, falling instead back to 8361.  The lopsided spinning top is a reversal warning, but not a good one and we remain just inside a rising RTC.  I think Tuesday should bring more clarity to this chart.

Accuracy:

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    5      10      6           0       0.333     64
February   5       2      2           1       0.750    107
March     12       3      6           0       0.800    431
April      9       3      5           0       0.750    482
May        6       7      6           0       0.462    -67
June       8      10      3           2       0.500    132
July       4       0      2           3       1.000    323

     And the winner is...

Once again, the market seems to be treading water, perhaps waiting for some resolution to the fighting in the Middle East and the Russian sanction saga.  Until then, I'm just not feeling the love, baby and I think it's better to just sit this one out.  Accordingly, the call is Tuesday uncertain.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats:  the account remains at $113,000 after seven trades in 2014, starting with $100,000.  We are now 5 for 7 total, 3 for 3 long, 2 for 3 short, and one push.  Tonight we stand aside.