Friday, August 22, 2014

Friday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Friday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 1980.75.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Next week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.

Last night I made a conditional call, claiming we'd finish higher if ES managed to stay above its pivot.  Well ES made a weak attempt at breaking the pivot at exactly 3:25 AM when it touched the pivot at 1980.75 on the dot - and that was it.  It bounced off that and the result was another 60 point gain for the Dow.  Don't tell me the bots don't have the pivot programmed in.

So anyway let's just cut to the chase.  With Auntie Janet's big pronouncement coming down from Mount Jackson-Holius on Friday, the only possible call is "uncertain", the same as I do on regular Fed days.  Therefore I'm skipping the usual chart-by-chart run-down tonight, though I will mention that technically I'm still not seeing any real evidence of bearishness.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    5      10      6           0       0.333
February   5       2      2           1       0.750    107
March     12       3      6           0       0.800    431
April      9       3      5           0       0.750    482
May        6       7      6           0       0.462    -67
June       8      10      3           2       0.500    132

July       6       4      4           3       0.692    639 August     6       6      1           1       0.538      7

     And the winner is...

Yeah, it's clearly got to be Friday uncertain given the headline risk involved.  Of course the general gestalt of the charts remains bullish so if I absolutely had to guess, I'd say we're going higher on Friday - but you didn't hear that here.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats:  the account remains $114,250 after eight trades in 2014, starting with $100,000.  We are now 6 for 8 total, 4 for 4 long, 2 for 3 short, and one push.  Tonight we stand aside.

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