Thursday, August 21, 2014

Thursday depends on ES pivot

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Thursday higher only if ES stays above pivot, otherwise lower.
  • ES pivot 1980.75.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Friday bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.

Well I guess that's what I get for playing the odds.  Despite Fed minute days as being historically negative, this Wednesday was not one of those with the Dow initially wavering but then recovering into the close for a 60 point gain.  Oh well, no real harm done so let's continue on into Thursday.

The technicals

The Dow: On Wednesday the Dow recruited three white soldiers just marching ever higher to remain once again well inside a rising RTC.  There is nothing bearish on this chart..

The VIX:  And on Wednesday the VIX rejected Tuesday's spinning top to sink another 3.52%.  With no support now til 11.50 and the 200 day MA a distant memory, this one continues to look bearish.

Market index futures: Tonight the futures are lower at 12:35 AM EDT with ES down one tick.  ES now has three white soldiers going as its rising RTC motors on.  It just managed to touch a new intraday high on Wednesday before falling back a bit for a record close.  With the indicators remaining pegged at overbought, there's no real bearish signs here.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 1975.08 to 1980.75.  We remain above the new pivot so this indicator remains bullish.

Dollar index:  And of course I missed the dollar on Wednesday too.  It did not bounce off the upper BBs I thought - instead it just smashed right through it and traded entirely above it for a 0.23% gap up green marubozu to confirm its 200 week MA breakout.  This chart now just looks plain bullish to me.

Euro: The euro made it three down in a row for a three black crows pattern, closing below its lower BB.  Though the indicators are oversold, the stochastic has yet to even start curving around for a bullish crossover.  There's nothing bullish about this chart, and the overnight, down another 0.14% so far supports that.

Transportation:  Most surprising was the trans which rejected Tuesday's gravestone doji in a big way to gain an impressive 0.55% on a green marubozu.  So this one now turns decidedly bullish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    5      10      6           0       0.333
February   5       2      2           1       0.750    107
March     12       3      6           0       0.800    431
April      9       3      5           0       0.750    482
May        6       7      6           0       0.462    -67
June       8      10      3           2       0.500    132
July       6       4      4           3       0.692    639
August     5       6      1           1       0.500      7

     And the winner is...

There's no really bearish signs in the charts tonight but as I've been writing this the futures have taken a turn south leaving us now just two points about the ES pivot.  Therefore I'm going to try another conditional call: if ES manages to stay above its pivot by mid-morning Thursday, we'll close higher, otherwise lower.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats:  the account remains $114,250 after eight trades in 2014, starting with $100,000.  We are now 6 for 8 total, 4 for 4 long, 2 for 3 short, and one push.  Tonight we stand aside.

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