Friday, November 21, 2014

Friday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Friday uncertain
  • ES pivot 2046.67.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Next week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.
Recap

Once again the market totally ignored a doji star reversal warning as the Dow managed another gain - this time just 33 points.  And once again we were down, and then up.  This is a great market for day traders, but not so much for swing traders.  And with Friday being op-ex and in front of a holiday-shortened week, I'll let you know right away I'm calling this one uncertain once again, so there's no point in going over individual charts tonight.

The technicals

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot ticks up from 2045.17 to 2046.67.   That leaves ES above its new pivot so this indicator is bullish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    5      10      6           0       0.333
    64
February   5       2      2           1       0.750    107
March     12       3      6           0       0.800    431
April      9       3      5           0       0.750    482
May        6       7      6           0       0.462    -67
June       8      10      3           2       0.500    132

July       6       4      4           3       0.692    639 
August     8       7      2           2       0.588     81
September  6       6      5           2       0.571    376 
October    6       6      3           1       0.538    271 
November   4       4      4           0       0.444     38


     And the winner is...

Quite simply, the way things have been going lately and with an op-ex Friday on the line, all I can do is call Friday uncertain.  And with a two-holiday week coming right up I'm going to take the entire week off.  See you again Sunday night - in two weeks.  For what it's worth, the technicals are looking vaguely bullish for Friday.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats:  the account now stands at $110,500 after ten trades in 2014, starting with $100,000.  We are now 7 for 10 total, 5 for 5 long, 2 for 4 short, and one push.  Tonight we stand aside.

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