Wednesday, November 19, 2014

Wednesday uncertain.

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Wednesday uncertain
  • ES pivot 2046.08.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.

Well I guess it serves me right for trying to outsmart Mr. Market.  For the second day in a row I was wrong and therefore I'm now taking a time out.  I will simply call Wednesday uncertain while I regroup, pick up the pieces and figure out what went so horribly wrong.  No charts tonight.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    5      10      6           0       0.333
February   5       2      2           1       0.750    107
March     12       3      6           0       0.800    431
April      9       3      5           0       0.750    482
May        6       7      6           0       0.462    -67
June       8      10      3           2       0.500    132

July       6       4      4           3       0.692    639 
August     8       7      2           2       0.588     81
September  6       6      5           2       0.571    376 
October    6       6      3           1       0.538    271 
November   4       4      2           0       0.444     38

     And the winner is...

With ES sitting smack dab on its pivot tonight and my last conditional calla  bust, and my last two calls equally bad, I have no choice but to call Wednesday uncertain..

ES Fantasy Trader

Tonight we close out a very bad and highly unprofitable short from last night as I kick myself for trying the be a hero with the countertrend play.  Instead, I'm just a zero.  Foo.


  1. I think you were right and your premise is still valid. I’d say, in hindsight, it was a bear trap in a Wyckoff congestion/reaccumulation formation. Likely this rally is just shorts going wrong, as you and me, and stop-losses getting fired, but I still think there are few buyers and we may assist to a distribution phase, possibly next week. Anyway we cannot always win, as you say, the important thing is to get more wins than losses. No need to feel bad, after all it’s a game not a Moscow trial. At least for the time being?

    1. Hah - indeed! I just had to kick myself some more when I got up thing morning and found ES had finally come in. I always hate playing coulda-woulda-shoulda, but I look at how long this market has been severly overbought and can't help but thinking we've got to get a down day sooner or later. The current trade reminds me of the dog days of August, and I hate those too.

      So anyway, we live to to trade another day, eh? Thanks for writing.


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