Friday, December 12, 2014

Friday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Friday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 2037.08.  Holding below is bearish.
  • Next week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • ES Fantasy Trader standing aside.

On Thursday we got a big rally early on that faded as the day progressed and made for some interesting candles so let's take a look as we wind up the second week of December.

The technicals

The Dow:  Thursday's action gave the Dow a big inverted hammer that is generally quite bullish.  Of course Tuesday's hammer was also supposed to be bullish but that flopped big time on Wednesday.  But now we're actually finally oversold and have now touched the lower BB two days running.  So this chart is at least hinting at more upside.

The VIX:  The VIX gained another 8.36% on Thursday as it continued climbing its upper BB in a move reminiscent of two months ago.  VVIX spiked even more, right up to its resistance at 134 and is now highly overbought.  I'd say the VIX is due to come back down soon but can't say if it will be on Friday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:18 AM EST with ES down 0.17%. 
lower   We got a giant bullish inverted hammer on Thursday off the lower BB along with indicators now quite oversold, so there's at least a suggestion of a move higher here on Friday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot ticks up from 2036.58 to 2037.08.   But we remain below the new pivot so this indicator remains bearish.

Dollar index: A nice 0.45% gain in the dollar Thursday  along with a stochastic gearing up for a bullish crossover points to higher here on Friday.

Euro:  The euro fell on Thursday on a dark cloud cover.  With a stochastic close to forming a bearish crossover, a bearish RTC setup, and a drift lower in the overnight, this one looks lower on Friday.

Transportation:  The trans have now put in three days of higher lows and their stochastic is getting ready for a bullish crossover.  But they're not yet out of their descending RTC so there's still something of a falling knife here.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    5      10      6           0       0.333
February   5       2      2           1       0.750    107
March     12       3      6           0       0.800    431
April      9       3      5           0       0.750    482
May        6       7      6           0       0.462    -67
June       8      10      3           2       0.500    132

July       6       4      4           3       0.692    639 
August     8       7      2           2       0.588     81
September  6       6      5           2       0.571    376 
October    6       6      3           1       0.538    271 
November   4       4      5           0       0.444     38

December   3       2      2           1       0.667   -192

     And the winner is...

Tonight we're getting a number of bullish reversal candles in the charts but unfortunately they really require confirmation.  I ignored that Tuesday night and paid for it big time on Wednesday.  So we're not making that mistake again.  I get the impression that the market is being more highly news-driven than usual lately, with the price of oil being the obvious culprit.  So much as I'd like to call it, I'm afraid I have to take a pass again tonight and just call Friday uncertain.  We just don't quite have enough factors lined up to make the bullish call, though I do think that's where the bias seems to be tonight.

That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats:  the account now stands at $110,500 after ten trades in 2014, starting with $100,000.  We are now 7 for 10 total, 5 for 5 long, 2 for 4 short, and one push.  Tonight we stand aside.

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